Towards a green economy

■ Under the green scenario, tourism energy supply and demand will see both the expansion of renewables and efficiency improvements across all tourism activities. The incremental renewable-energy supply associated with tourism will be 43 Mtoe per year on average, including the expansion and introduction of renewable power generation and biofuels. On the demand side, the total energy consumption for various tourism activities will reach 954 Mtoe in 2050 under the green scenario, representing 44 per cent of avoided energy use relative to BAU2. These savings come from a mix of effective measures in individual activities – a modal shift to less carbon-intensive transport (e.g. electrified train and coach), behavioural changes (e.g. shorter-haul trips) to reduce total travel distance, better energy management (e.g. setting targets and benchmarking for hotels) – as well as across all sectors – technological advances in fuel efficiency and fewer inefficient uses due to better equipment or greater environmental awareness. More specifically, tourism transport, thanks to the transport-sector investments, will see the largest saving (604 Mtoe below the corresponding BAU scenario), followed by tourist accommodation, with 150 Mtoe of avoided consumption in 2050.

■ As a result of these energy savings, CO2 emissions will

be mitigated substantially relative to the corresponding BAU projection (-52 per cent by 2050), returning to the current level of 1.44 Gt in 2050, or 7 per cent of global emissions. The relative increase of the share of global emissions generated by tourism derives from a projected growth of tourism GDP higher than the average projected growth of global GDP. Tourism is expected to grow faster than most other sectors; and, without green investments, its environmental impacts would be much higher. By 2050, transportation is

■ These savings will result in potential avoided costs that can be reinvested in socially and environmentally responsible local activities (such as protected areas, local transportation or staff capabilities and skills), increasing the indirect and induced effects of tourism expenditure on local development. In particular, spending by visitors from wealthier regions to developing countries helps to create much-needed employment and opportunities for development, reducing economic disparities and poverty.

expected to still be the principal emitter (0.7 Gt), with aviation and cars accounting for 74 per cent and 24 per cent of the reduction respectively. Accommodation, as the second-largest emitter, will account for 0.58 Gt of emissions in 2050. The remaining CO2

emissions (98 Mt)

are caused by other tourism activities. In addition to the mitigation of CO2

emissions in the green economy, as

climate is a key resource for tourism and the sector is highly sensitive to the impacts of climate change, these sustainable practices should strengthen the capacity of tourist destinations to adapt to unfavourable climatic conditions.

■ Furthermore, investment in tourism waste management allows for a higher rate of waste collection and reuse (recycling and recovery). In 2050, 207 Mt of waste will be generated by the tourism sector in the green scenario, compared with 180 Mt in the corresponding BAU scenario (due to higher GDP and tourist visitor nights in green scenarios). On the other hand, green investment is estimated to allow 57 Mt more reuse of waste than in the corresponding BAU scenario, therefore cutting net waste disposal (taking into consideration waste reuse) in 2050 by 30 Mt relative to BAU2.

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