Tourism

can offer opportunities for continuation, rejuvenation or enhancement of traditions and a way of life.

Culture is rarely static, and linking tourism and cultural survival may bring benefits as well as changes and challenges for a community to address. The possible socio-cultural costs and benefits of tourism to a vulnerable culture are rarely quantified. Tourism projects need to include a programme to monitor economic and cultural benefits so that vulnerable cultures can assess and manage the impacts of tourism on their communities (Wild 2010). Aside from the intangible benefits, most commentators believe that investment in cultural heritage is among the most significant, and usually profitable, investments a society, or tourism sector, can make (Box 5).

3.6 Modelling tourism 11

To quantify the likely effects of increased investments in tourism, the green investment scenario (G2) simulated in the modelling exercise allocates on average 0.2 per cent of global GDP12

(or US$ 248 billion at constant 2010

US dollar prices) per year between 2011 and 2050 to the tourism sector, which is further disaggregated into energy, water and waste management, staff training, and biodiversity conservation.13

The green investment

represents 4% of tourism GDP. This would most likely comprise a mixture of public as well as private investments. Assumptions of the model are presented in Annex 3 and results of simulations are detailed below.

Results of the simulation The results of the simulations of the green investment scenario indicates that total arrivals of international tourists will increase by 2.8 per cent per year by 2030 and then at a lower rate of 2.5 per cent per year in the longer term to reach 2.6 billion in 2050, which is 30 per cent below the corresponding business-as- usual scenario (BAU2) due to the shift towards less frequent -but longer- trips in the green scenario14

. The

immediate impacts of international and domestic tourism will lead to a yearly direct tourism expenditure of US$ 11.3 trillion on average between 2010 and 2050 in the green investment scenario (in such areas as sales in the hotel sector, hotel payments for wages and salaries, taxes, and supplies and services). These direct

11. This section (including forecasts and simulations regarding international tourism growth) is based on the Millennium Institute’s work for the Green Economy Report.

12. Tourism accounts for 5% of global GDP.

13. In the G2 green investment scenario, an additional 2 per cent of global GDP is allocated to a green transformation of a range of key sectors, of which tourism is one (see Modelling chapter for more detailed explanation of scenarios and results).

14. BAU2 refers to the BAU scenario with an additional 2 per cent of global GDP per year invested according to current patterns and trends (see Modelling chapter).

expenditures have strong impacts on the destination economies resulting from various rounds of re-spending of tourism expenditure in other industries (i.e. industries supplying products and services to hotels). The total expenditure, including direct and indirect expenditures, will reach US$ 21.5 trillion on average over the next 40 years in the green scenario. The resulting higher economic growth drives the sector GDP to grow from US$ 3 trillion today to US$ 10.2 trillion in 2050, exceeding the corresponding BAU scenario by 7 per cent. Direct employment in this sector is expected to grow to 580 million in the green scenario by 2050, compared with 544 million in the corresponding BAU projection. The training of these new employees requires US$ 31 billion of investment per year on average in the next 40 years.

Despite the rising flow of tourists, the green investment will lead to significant resource conservation through considerable efficiency improvements and reduction of losses:

■ Tourism water consumption is projected to be 6.7 km3

the corresponding BAU scenario by 18 per cent.

in 2050 in the green scenario, undercutting In

the meantime, additional investments are projected to increase water supply, which is essential for many tourism-dependent, water-stressed countries – on average 0.02 km3 and 0.6 km3

wastewater, surface and underground water) through better management over the 40-year period.

per year above BAU2 from desalination, per year from conventional sources (treated

Box 5: Differential economic contribution from cultural areas

In Western Australia, attempts have been made to measure the economic value of cultural heritage through direct tourism expenditure, using three locations: the city of Freemantle, the city of Albany and the town of New Norcia. In order to determine the proportion of the total overnight visitor expenditure that could be directly attributable to cultural heritage, an attribution factor was generated based on data from visitor surveys and other sources. The study found that between 63 per cent and 75 per cent of a visitor’s expenditure was due to the cultural heritage of the area, generating in the region of US$ 40-$ 80 per visitor per day.

Source: Tourism Western Australia, available at http://www.westernaustralia.com, accessed on September 10, 2010

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