figure below shows the level of road transport activity (in vehicle kilometres) under various BAU scenarios as well as the green investment scenario.
In terms of modal split, the green investment scenario assumes a fall in the share of passenger kilometres by car in 2050 from 62 per cent (BAU2) to 33 per cent26
freight, rail retains a relatively large share of 52 per cent of the transport volume (tkm).
The total energy consumption of the transport sector will be limited to 2.2 thousand million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2050 in green investment scenario. About 874 Mtoe are satisfied by biofuels,27
based fuels to 1,251 Mtoe in 2050, 81 per cent lower than BAU2. Considerable energy savings come from the switch to public transport as the increase in emissions by buses and electrified rail are much smaller than the avoided emissions from LDVs.
Results As a result of these investments, carbon emissions are reduced radically, by 8.4 Gt of CO2
$20 trillion additional investments in vehicles (for more efficient vehicles including electric vehicles) but about a similar, US$ 20 trillion, savings in fuel costs due to increased fuel efficiency28
(IEA 2009b). Therefore, a major
global carbon reduction can be achieved without any cost (but would need investment policies that would promote investment in cleaner and more efficient vehicles).
Total employment in the transport sector will remain substantial, with large growth in public transport modes such as passenger rail. Overall employment in the transport sector in 2050 is modeled to be higher in the green scenario compared to BAU2, by roughly 10 per cent. Jobs related to cars (including production and maintenance) will also grow, albeit less rapidly compared with BAU2 owing to the lower levels of car ownership under the green scenario.29
As a , or 68 per cent
relative to BAU2 in 2050. The green investment scenario corresponds roughly to the level of emissions modelled by IEA in their low carbon (BLUE Map) scenario, which combines incremental improvements in fuel efficiency of conventional engines, a 20-fold increase in biofuels and uptake of new vehicles such as hybrids and fuel cell vehicles. In the BLUE Map scenario, IEA estimates
26. This figure heavily depends on the assumptions that are used on the effectiveness of measures to avoid the need for travel, as well as to what extent the demand shifts towards public and non-motorised transport.
27. Care needs to be taken to ensure that the biofuels used comply strictly with sustainability criteria that cover the different environmental and social concerns including food prices.
result of the large reductions in carbon emissions, together with continued strong growth in transport employment, the carbon intensity of each transport job is reduced by around 70 per cent compared with BAU2, reflecting the decoupling of transport emissions from economic growth, and the greening of jobs in this sector.30
28. 2008 as a base year.
29. Note: Reliable job estimates on maintenance of cars could not be found and have not been included explicitly in the modelling. Concerning public transport, management and operation job numbers were calculated based on EU data (excluding France and Germany which have disproportionately high levels of employment in this subsector) to estimate employment at the world level.
30. The approach taken in this chapter to quantify the greenness of jobs may help inform existing and future definitions of green jobs – for example those from the International Labour Organization (ILO). Further refinement and coordination of approaches in this aspect would prove beneficial in better quantifying and monitoring the transition towards a green economy.