Towards a green economy

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000

0 2010 2/3 wheelers 2050 BAU LDVs 2050 BAU2 buses 2050 G2 trucks Figure 9: Level of vehicle activity under BAU and

the green scenarios Source: Based on modelling conducted for this report

4.3 Investing in green transport

Inputs and assumptions The green investment scenario (G2) assumes US$ 419 billion in constant US$ 2010 invested per year over the next 40 year period into:

■ Expanding the public transport infrastructure (promoting modal share to bus and rail transport); and

■ Increasing the efficiency of road vehicles.

With respect to public transport infrastructure, investments are made to reduce LDV (cars) and air travel and increase bus and rail travel volume, promoting a modal shift to less carbon intensive forms of transport. An annual investment of around US$ 24 billion is allocated to transport infrastructure over the 40 year period.

With respect to energy efficiency improvement, around US$ 384 billion is assumed to be invested in more efficient vehicles on average each year between 2011 and 2050. Note that the investments assumed in the model for measures under the Avoid, Shift and Improve strategies are in line with the EEA and IEA green transport investment scenarios discussed earlier.

15000 12000

Furthermore, to represent future changes in travel needs under the green scenarios, a 25 per cent avoidance of total transport volume is initially assumed, in accordance with IEA’s outlook on total travel volume.25

This reduction 9000 6000 3000

is assumed to happen at no cost as a result of changing needs and behaviour motivated by the various enabling conditions such as better city planning, more e-working, strict regulations, etc. Note that the above assumptions on investment and behavioural changes directly mirror the Avoid, Shift and Improve paradigm set out in Section 2.2. These are shown to impact on the transport modal split, energy consumption, energy-related emissions, and employment as discussed below.

0 2010

2/3 wheelers passenger rail

2050 BAU cars freight rail Figure 10: Modeled changes to CO2

scenarios Source: Based on modelling conducted for this report

2050 BAU2 buses air 2050 G2

trucks water

emissions in the transport sector under the green and BAU

The annual green investment in the transport sector would generally encourage the shift from (or retain the modal share of) private transport to public or non- motorised transport, compared to the various BAU scenarios. The total travel volume of road vehicles will limit its increase from 21 trillion VKM in 2009 to 39 trillion VKM in 2050, 35 per cent below BAU2 (BAU with the same amount of additional investment as in G2). The

impact of the green scenarios on GDP are projected to push total travel volume higher, partially offsetting the impacts of this initial assumption.

25. Assumed to be primarily driven by transit oriented development, telework, shorter but more frequent trips, among others (as indicated in IEA’s Transport, Energy and CO2

study). On the other hand, the positive

396

Megatonnes of CO2

Vehcle kilometers