Towards a green economy
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0 2010 2/3 wheelers 2050 BAU LDVs 2050 BAU2 buses 2050 G2 trucks Figure 9: Level of vehicle activity under BAU and
the green scenarios Source: Based on modelling conducted for this report
4.3 Investing in green transport
Inputs and assumptions The green investment scenario (G2) assumes US$ 419 billion in constant US$ 2010 invested per year over the next 40 year period into:
■ Expanding the public transport infrastructure (promoting modal share to bus and rail transport); and
■ Increasing the efficiency of road vehicles.
With respect to public transport infrastructure, investments are made to reduce LDV (cars) and air travel and increase bus and rail travel volume, promoting a modal shift to less carbon intensive forms of transport. An annual investment of around US$ 24 billion is allocated to transport infrastructure over the 40 year period.
With respect to energy efficiency improvement, around US$ 384 billion is assumed to be invested in more efficient vehicles on average each year between 2011 and 2050. Note that the investments assumed in the model for measures under the Avoid, Shift and Improve strategies are in line with the EEA and IEA green transport investment scenarios discussed earlier.
Furthermore, to represent future changes in travel needs under the green scenarios, a 25 per cent avoidance of total transport volume is initially assumed, in accordance with IEA’s outlook on total travel volume.25
This reduction 9000 6000 3000
is assumed to happen at no cost as a result of changing needs and behaviour motivated by the various enabling conditions such as better city planning, more e-working, strict regulations, etc. Note that the above assumptions on investment and behavioural changes directly mirror the Avoid, Shift and Improve paradigm set out in Section 2.2. These are shown to impact on the transport modal split, energy consumption, energy-related emissions, and employment as discussed below.
2/3 wheelers passenger rail
2050 BAU cars freight rail Figure 10: Modeled changes to CO2
scenarios Source: Based on modelling conducted for this report
2050 BAU2 buses air 2050 G2
emissions in the transport sector under the green and BAU
The annual green investment in the transport sector would generally encourage the shift from (or retain the modal share of) private transport to public or non- motorised transport, compared to the various BAU scenarios. The total travel volume of road vehicles will limit its increase from 21 trillion VKM in 2009 to 39 trillion VKM in 2050, 35 per cent below BAU2 (BAU with the same amount of additional investment as in G2). The
impact of the green scenarios on GDP are projected to push total travel volume higher, partially offsetting the impacts of this initial assumption.
25. Assumed to be primarily driven by transit oriented development, telework, shorter but more frequent trips, among others (as indicated in IEA’s Transport, Energy and CO2
study). On the other hand, the positive
Megatonnes of CO2