Renewable energy 25 20 15 Thermal power 10 5 Coal production 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Figure 8: Total employment in the energy sector, and its disaggregation into fuel and power, and energy efficiency under the G2 scenario

60 50

Business-as-usual Power use efficiency

40

Transport efficiency and fuel switching

30

Industry fuel efficiency and fuel switching

Renewable energy power generation

20

biofuels Carbon capture & storage 2% green investment scenario

10

Oil production Gas production

Biofuel

RE power Energy efficiency

0 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Figure 9: Total energy-related emissions and reductions under G2 by source, relative to BAU

fully achieve the emissions reductions projected by IEA as necessary for limiting atmospheric concentrations to 450 ppm.39

Part of this difference is due to the positive

effect of various green investments on overall economic growth (GDP) that, in turn, results in increased energy demand, a form of the rebound effect. In addition, the green investment scenarios do not include substantially

39. However, as explained in the Modelling chapter, with the potential carbon sequestration of the measures to green the agricultural sector, the G2 is expected to reduce the concentration of CO2

to 450 ppm by 2050.

increased investments in nuclear power, nor in CCS, both major components of the IEA’s BLUE Map 450 scenario (see Table 11 and Table 12). Note also though that only about a quarter of the scenarios reviewed for the IPCC (2011) SRREN result in a CO2

concentration

not exceeding 440 ppm by 2100, and more than half lead to concentrations by the end of the century in the range of 440 to 600 ppm. Thus, the G2 investment scenario constitutes a relatively conservative emissions reductions path, but one which is more feasible than more ambitious projections.

225

Gt CO2 Million persons