Towards a green economy % *WEO Scenarios

Coal Oil

Gas

Nuclear Hydro

Biomass and wastes

Other RE Total

Current Policies

29 30 21 6 2

10 2

100 *Additional sources: IEA (2010b, 2010d)

Table 11: Comparison of energy mix in 2030 and 2050 in various GER and IEA scenarios

the IPCC show moderately stronger deployment of RE than BAU from the GER modelling.

Effects on employment – increasing jobs from greening the energy sector The total employment in the energy supply sector is projected to decrease slightly over time in the BAU scenario, from 19 million in 2010 to 18.6 million in 2050, owing to increasing labour productivity in fossil-fuel extraction and processing. In the green investment scenarios, there is some short-term net job creation primarily because of the higher labour intensity of renewable energy generation compared with thermal power generation. In the longer term, increasing productivity also leads to a roughly comparable decline, reaching 18.3 million in 2050 in the G2 case. Between 330,000 and 1 million jobs would be created in the production and processing of biofuels and agriculture residues, which would rise to 3 million if a mix of agricultural residues and conventional feedstock is used. There is a major shift in employment, however, with growth in renewable power generation and biofuels production matched by a considerable decline in coal extraction and processing, and to some extent gas production (Figure 8). The additional investment in energy efficiency in the buildings sector36

also included

in the G2 scenario, however, leads to an additional 5.1 million jobs in 2050. The net effect is thus a projected increase in energy-sector employment of approximately 21 per cent over a comparable BAU scenario.37

It should be noted that the modelling of renewable- energy investment includes only “direct jobs” that will substitute new jobs from not expanding energy of other sources (in the case of increased demand) or even replace existing jobs in other energy technologies. It does not include “indirect jobs” – created or displaced – in sectors that supply energy industries. These are

224 2030

GER *WEO GER BAU

31 28 23 6 2

8 3

100

450 19

27 21 10 3

14 5

100

G2 25

24 23 8 3

12 5

100 2050 *ETP

BLUE Map

15 19 21 17

29 100

GER G2

15 21 25 12 4

16 8

100

End-use electricity efficiency

Fuel efficiency Industry

Transportation Supply-side abatement

Power generation from low carbon sources (RE & Nuclear)

Biofuels CCS

50% 30% 3% 17% 19%

*WEO 450 Scenario

2030 49%

*ETP BLUE Map

2050 19% 35%

8% 46% 27% G2

2030 22% 23%

7%

16% 54%

39%

6% 9%

G2

2050 27% 28%

6%

22% 46%

33%

5% 7%

NB: Columns may not add up to 100% due to rounding. *Additional sources: IEA (2010b, 2010d)

Table 12: Emission abatement shares from GER modelling compared with IEA

the sectoral effects, whereas the wider effects on output and jobs in the rest of the economy38

(covered

in the Modelling chapter) depend on how the relative availability and price of capital, labour and energy are affected as a result of increased investment in renewable energy. It should also be pointed out that considerable net job creation can imply higher-cost energy, which can constrain economic growth and development. Finally, the global analysis does not capture effects on specific countries. Some of these, such as oil-exporting countries, may well see negative effects on employment in the energy sector.

Effects on GHG emissions Under the green investment scenarios, global energy intensity (in terms of Mtoe/US$ billion GDP) declines by 36 per cent by 2030, and the cumulative global energy- related CO2

emissions would be considerably

mitigated by 2050 (Figure 9). Under G2, emissions are approximately 60 per cent lower in 2050 as compared to BAU. In absolute amounts, this corresponds to a decline from 30.6 Gt of energy-related CO2

emissions in 2010 to about 20 Gt in 2050 (see Figure 9).

Table 12 compares the contribution to emissions reduction under G2 from both demand- and supply-side investments with those of the IEA’s BLUE Map scenario. Both exercises project a contribution to emissions abatement of 46 per cent from supply-side investments. The green investment scenario G2, however, does not

36. These are essentially for the buildings sector, as potential job implications of investments in energy efficiency in industrial and transport sectors could not be captured.

37. The point of comparison for employment generation is the simulated effects of an additional investment of 2 per cent of GDP in current investment patterns (see the Modelling chapter for more details).

38. Also sometimes referred to as “induced jobs” (NREL 1997).