Towards a green economy

Aggregated global gap between existing accessible, reliable supply and 2030 water withdrawals, assuming no efficiency gains

6,900

CAGR 2%

Municipal & domestic

Industry Agriculture

4,500 600 800

4,500 3,100

Existing withdrawals2

2030 withdrawals3

1,500 900

2,800 100 Relevant supply

quantity is much lower than the absolute renewable water

availability in nature

Basins with deficits

Basins with surplus

Existing accessible, reliable, sustainable supply1

1 Existing supply which can be provided at 90% reliability, based on historical hydrology and infrastructure investments scheduled through 2010; net of environmental requirements 2 Based on 2010 agricultural production analyses from IFPRI 3 Based on GDP, population projections and agricultural production projections from IFPRI; considers no water productivity gains between 2005-2030

3,500 Surface water -40%

4,200 700

Groundwater

Figure 8: Aggregated global gap between existing accessible, reliable supply and 2030 water withdrawals,

assuming no efficiency gains Source: 2030 Water Resources Group (2009)

Business-as-usual approaches will not meet demand for raw water

Billion m3 8,000

Demand with no productivity improvements

7,000

Historical improvements in water productivity1

6,000 Remaining gap 5,000

Increase in supply2 business-as-usual

3,000 Today2 2030

Existing accessible, reliable supply3

1 Based on historical agricultural yield growth rates from 1990-2004 from FAOSTAT, agricultural and industrial efficiency improvements from IFPRI 2 Total increased capture of raw water through infrastructure buildout, excluding unsustainable extraction 3 Supply shown at 90% reliability and includes infrastructure investments scheduled and funded through 2010. Current 90%-reliable supply does not meet average demand

Figure 9: Projection of the global demand for water and, under a business-as-usual scenario, the amount that can be expected to be met from supply augmentation and improvements in technical water use

efficiency (productivity) Source: 2030 Water Resources Group (2009)

Figure 10 on page 131 shows the nature of expected increase in demand for water throughout the world. As discussed, one of the more significant challenges is to find ways to supply more water to the industrial sector while increasing agricultural production. Significant transfers of water from rural areas to the industrial sector can be expected, especially in China and in North America (2030 Working Group 2009). In anticipation of the pressure that these shortages will place on water-dependent business, a number of large companies are beginning to quantify and account for their water use and water

128

related impacts and the nature of the water-related risks they face (Lloyds 2010; United Nations 2010a).

3.2 Opportunities

Investing in biodiversity and ecosystem services In terms of ecosystem health and function, global assessments of the health of the world’s water river systems and aquifers suggest that the aggregate trend

under 20% 60% 20%

Portion of gap Percent

Billion m3

, 154 basins/regions