1 Existing supply which can be provided at 90% reliability, based on historical hydrology and infrastructure investments scheduled through 2010; net of environmental requirements 2 Based on 2010 agricultural production analyses from IFPRI 3 Based on GDP, population projections and agricultural production projections from IFPRI; considers no water productivity gains between 2005-2030
3,500 Surface water -40%
4,200 700
Groundwater
Figure 8: Aggregated global gap between existing accessible, reliable supply and 2030 water withdrawals,
assuming no efficiency gains Source: 2030 Water Resources Group (2009)
Business-as-usual approaches will not meet demand for raw water
Billion m3 8,000
Demand with no productivity improvements
7,000
Historical improvements in water productivity1
6,000 Remaining gap 5,000
Increase in supply2 business-as-usual
3,000 Today2 2030
Existing accessible, reliable supply3
1 Based on historical agricultural yield growth rates from 1990-2004 from FAOSTAT, agricultural and industrial efficiency improvements from IFPRI 2 Total increased capture of raw water through infrastructure buildout, excluding unsustainable extraction 3 Supply shown at 90% reliability and includes infrastructure investments scheduled and funded through 2010. Current 90%-reliable supply does not meet average demand
Figure 9: Projection of the global demand for water and, under a business-as-usual scenario, the amount that can be expected to be met from supply augmentation and improvements in technical water use
efficiency (productivity) Source: 2030 Water Resources Group (2009)
Figure 10 on page 131 shows the nature of expected increase in demand for water throughout the world. As discussed, one of the more significant challenges is to find ways to supply more water to the industrial sector while increasing agricultural production. Significant transfers of water from rural areas to the industrial sector can be expected, especially in China and in North America (2030 Working Group 2009). In anticipation of the pressure that these shortages will place on water-dependent business, a number of large companies are beginning to quantify and account for their water use and water
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related impacts and the nature of the water-related risks they face (Lloyds 2010; United Nations 2010a).
3.2 Opportunities
Investing in biodiversity and ecosystem services In terms of ecosystem health and function, global assessments of the health of the world’s water river systems and aquifers suggest that the aggregate trend