NEWS I ROUNDUP
Overspend will affect global PV equipment sales in 2012
GLOBAL PV equipment spending (including c-Si ingot-to-module and thin- film panel) is projected to fall by more than 45% in 2012, down from a historic peak of US$13.1 billion this year, according to the latest Solarbuzz PV Equipment Quarterly report. As a result, PV equipment suppliers are being forced to redefine their prouct roadmaps to align with the projected upturn.
Almost half of PV equipment spending in 2011 has been stimulated by new entrants to the industry or from existing tier 2 or tier 3 manufacturers seeking to increase revenues by adding capacity. The majority of this investment has turned out to be supplemental to the capacity required to meet short term industry demand. Consequently, revenues available to PV equipment suppliers have been temporarily inflated by US$6 billion during 2011. The scale of this over investment will drive the magnitude of the declines during 2012, and prolong the spending downturn period into 2013.
According to Finlay Colville, Senior Analyst at Solarbuzz, “Aspirations of rapid market entry or market-share gains from lower tier cell manufacturers have been key factors behind the surplus in equipment spending during 2011. However, the second strong cycle of thin- film investments also peaked this year. This saw considerable funding being allocated to next-generation PV technologies.”
Having posted positive revenue growth between Q3’09 and Q1’11, PV equipment spending during both Q2’11 and Q3’11 has declined by single-digit percentage
70%. Equipment suppliers that benefitted most from the c-Si wafer, cell and module expansions of 2011 will be the hardest hit during 2012, as new expansion plans are pushed out or postponed.
points, as the slowdown in new capacity expansion starts to impact equipment suppliers’ revenues. While strong Y/Y growth of 21% during Q3’11 will be highlighted during company reporting later this quarter, the leading forward indicators show sharp declines in new order intake, resulting from PV manufacturers’ concerns over capacity and demand levels forecast for 2012. Double-digit Q/Q revenue declines are now forecast between Q4’11 and Q2’12.
The only PV equipment suppliers that will be shielded from rapid declines in revenues through 2012 are those with strong order backlogs aligned with polysilicon expansion phases in progress across the Asia Pacific region. This will actually drive Y/Y growth in revenues for a select group of companies meeting this upstream demand. Conversely, many other PV equipment suppliers will experience Y/Y revenue declines of 30-
Upgrade and replacement equipment revenues in 2012 are unlikely to provide anything other than partial compensation for the significant declines in new capacity additions. Similarly, technology inflection points that may drive upside in tool revenues are likely to be spread across a wide range of competing high- efficiency schemes being investigated today. This gloomy outlook is further exacerbated by the continuous shakeout of uncompetitive PV cell manufacturers that will likely spread beyond Europe and North America during 2012.
As a result, PV equipment suppliers, historically driven by incremental capacity, are now adjusting strategies based upon new roadmaps to focus on the tier 1 manufacturers across Asia. Fundamental to the success of these roadmaps will be predicting the timelines and scale of the upturn in PV equipment spending at the process tool level.
“The total addressable market for PV equipment today is heavily influenced by different investment motives and technology preferences, rather than capacity required under any rational supply-demand balance,” added Colville. “Forecasting the spending cycles associated with these motives and technologies throughout the different stages of the value-chains will be essential for tool suppliers over the next few quarters.”
ARISE Technologies to pay €920,066 in lease dispute
ARISE TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION announced that it has been directed to pay to Scheuten Solar, the amount of Euro 920,066, which includes interest and costs. This decision is as a result of an arbitration hearing which was concluded last week in Germany related to its dispute with Scheuten Solar regarding the lease of the Technology Centre in Gelsenkirchen, Germany.
Arise signed a lease in 2009 to take over the Scheuten Solar plant in Gelsenkirchen, Germany and convert it to a technology
centre to commercialize high-efficiency photovoltaic cell technology. Under the agreement, Scheuten was to purchase photovoltaic cells from Arise and Arise was to purchase modules from Scheuten.
ARISE says it is disappointed with the arbitration decision and is reviewing the arbiter’s findings with a view to explore its options. The Company continues to work with its financial advisor, Canaccord Genuity, to evaluate strategic alternatives.
Issue IX 2011 I
www.solar-pv-management.com 9
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