Key Issues
100% renewable energy by 2050?
Switching to renewable energy or fuel is one of the most effective
ways to reduce CO2 emissions, and companies throughout the Nordic region report progress in this area. Even in aviation, where the use of renewables seemed hard to imagine only a few years ago, biofuel is now helping to power commercial flights. There are many examples in other sectors where companies have converted offices, factories and even entire operations to run on solar, water and wind energy.
But can these success stories be translated to the region as a whole? The Nordic countries are relatively well placed, with plentiful sources of wind, water and biomass. Denmark, Finland and Sweden are already subject to EU targets of 30%, 38% and 49% respectively, compared to 20% for the EU as a whole, for the share of total energy to come from renewable sources by 2020.
Yet there are also obstacles: • Finland and Sweden rely heavily on nuclear energy, which also
helps to keep CO2 emissions down even though it presents its own set of environmental dangers.
• The supply of forest biomass is not unlimited, even in the sparsely populated Nordic region. Paper manufacturers point out that the growth in demand for wood to be used as biofuel is pushing up prices.
• Fossil fuels are still needed at times of peak demand, and while utilities report some progress with smart grids that would balance supply and demand and enable the storage of solar and wind power, developments are still at an early stage.
Nevertheless, a recent World Wildlife Fund report has concluded that 100% renewable energy by 2050 is entirely possible not only for the Nordic region but for the whole world.* An additional study develops a concrete scenario for how fossil fuels and nuclear power might be phased out in Sweden in a sustainable manner and based on known technology.†
As the figure below shows, the scenario depends on reducing total energy usage by around one-third, and on increasing the supply of wind and solar power in particular. The criterion of sustainability places a limit on any increase in bioenergy, since taking much more wood from Nordic forests would endanger both biodiversity and the role of the forest as a carbon sink, while imports of liquid biofuel might result in higher emissions abroad.
Figure 12: Energy sources in Sweden in a scenario for 100% renewable energy by 2050 (TWh) excluding energy losses in nuclear
500
400
300
200
100
0 2010 2020
Crude oil and oil products Coal and coke
Natural gas, gasworks gas Peat
Nuclear power
Heat pumps (extracted heat) Solar heat
2030 2040 2050
Surplus heat from industry Waste Bioenergy New renewable energy tech Solar photovoltaic Wind power Hydropower
Source: Gustavsson, M., E. Särnholm, P. Stigsson and L. Zetterberg (2011). “Energy Scenario for Sweden 2050 Based on Renewable Energy Technologies and Sources”, IVL Swedish Environment Institute and WWF Sweden, Göteborg and Stockholm. September.
* WWF, The Energy Report: 100% Renewable Energy By 2050 (2011) † WWF, Hållbar energi: 100% förnybart på naturens villkor (2011)
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