PRIME NUMBERS

SUPERFAST BROADBAND SET TO GROW A new report from Arthur D. Little and Exane BNP Paribas on superfast broadband in Europe concludes that cable operators are still in the driving seat with telcos needing to catch up. Across the nine countries analysed telcos have connected only 1.5% of households with superfast broadband, defined as offering at least 50-megabits-per- second download speeds. The researchers say 4% of households have been passed with fibre-to-the home networks, 16% with VDSL and 34% with Docsis 3.0 cable technology. But they say services are set to expand: cable operators are upgrading more than 90% of their footprint

to Docsis 3.0, and incumbent operators have announced E18 billion in capex by 2015 to roll out FTTH to 16% of households and VDSL to another 28%. What’s more, they estimate E18-40 billion of additional capex which has yet to be announced by incumbents in the nine countries studied (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and the UK).

CABLE LEADS THE WAY

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

n Homes passed

n Homes connected 16% 4% 0.7% FTTH/B 0.8%

FTTC/ VDSL

1.5%

DOCSIS 3.0

34%

TELCOS CATCHING UP n 2010 n 2015e

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

46% 34% 20% 21% 4% Cable FTTx FTTH Source: Arthur D. Little / Exane BNP Paribas 500 million people worldwide will use

their mobiles as metro and bus tickets by 2015. (Juniper Research)

$70 billion

Revenues from application- to-person (A2P) SMS by 2016, exceeding peer-to- peer (P2P) SMS revenues. (Juniper Research)

LTE NETWORK SPEND Spending on LTE infrastruc- ture will expand to $27.9 billion globally in 2014, up from $1.5 billion in 2010, according to new IHS iSuppli research. North America accounted for $90 million of the $97 million spent on LTE globally in 2009 and nearly half of worldwide spending in 2010; this year the region will account for $1.7 billion of the projected $3.8 billion global LTE spend, but by 2014 it will represent less than a fifth of the total—$5 billion of the $27.9 billion forecast.

20

SMARTPHONES DRIVE MOBILE GROWTH According to IDC the worldwide mobile phone market grew 19.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, driven largely by high smartphone growth and in particular in emerging markets. Vendors shipped 371.8 million units in the first quarter compared to 310.5 million in the first quarter of 2010. The top five vendors maintained their positions, but IDC says growth of other companies such as Micromax, TCL-Alcatel, Huawei and Research In Motion shows that the market is still open to share gains. Samsung posted record Q1 shipments, closing the gap on market leader Nokia and extending its lead over third placed LG Electronics. Apple had a record quarter for shipments and the highest growth rate of the worldwide leaders, while LG shipments declined year-on-year for the third consecutive quarter.

Vendor Nokia Samsung

LEADING MOBILE PHONE VENDORS, Q1 2011 1Q11 1Q11 1Q10 1Q10 1Q11/

Shipments Market Shipment Market 1Q10 (millions) Share Volumes Share Change 108.5 29.2% 107.8 34.7% 0.6% 70.0 18.8% 64.3 20.7% 8.9%

LG Electronics 24.5 6.6% 27.1 8.7% -9.6% Apple ZTE

Others Total

18.7 5.0% 8.7 2.8% 114.9% 15.1 4.1% 10.4 3.3% 45.2% 135 36.3% 92.2 29.7% 46.4% 371.8 100.0% 310.5 100.0% 19.8% Source: IDC

49% $3.8 billion

MOBILE BACKHAUL New research from Infonetics shows that the mobile backhaul equipment market grew 10.3% in 2010 compared to the previous year, to $6.84 billion worldwide. Infonetics says operators almost univer- sally are adopting IP/Ethernet as their mobile backhaul solution to lower the costs of growing mobile data traffic, using IP as the base technol- ogy for 3G, LTE and WiMAX networks. Some 89% of the money spent on mobile backhaul equipment in 2010 was for IP/Ethernet.

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Global business spending on video conferencing in 2016. (Ovum)

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% of households

Homes passed (% of households)