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UK key economic indicators 2004


Market Analysis Winter 2010/11 Demand has also had an


GDP CPI RPI


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


Claimant unemployment (m) Bank rate at end of period


GDP annual growth GDP quarter on quarter growth


2006 2007


GDP annual growth GDP quarter on quarter growth


200 250


100 150


2005 2006 50 0


GDP annual growth GDP quarter on quarter growth


200


100 150


50 0 ls


impact on the number of times properties are viewed before they are sold. Lower demand has meant buyers are under less pressure to make decisions and so are able to view and re-view properties without the pressure of having to make an offer. In November 2010, properties were viewed an average of just over sixteen times before a sale was agreed. This is four viewings more than in April when properties were viewed an average of twelve times. (Figure 8)


2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sales Appraisals UK key economic indicators


GDP CPI RPI


2007 New Instructions to Sell


Demand for big ticket property fuels overall price growth


New Instructions to Sell ales Appraisals Properties on Market 40 30 200


10 20


0 0 150 100 50


Sales affected by election and budget


The volume of sales agreed is often determined by seasonal factors. In 2009, we saw a clear seasonal pattern of rising sales during the spring, peaking in May and falling in the summer


8 Market Analysis Winter 2010/11


250 300


£600k £600k £550k £550k £500k


£500k £450k


£450k £400k


Sales Agreed £400k Uk London


100 150 200


Uk London Properties on Market 0


While low demand and static stock levels have created a somewhat negative view of the market, average asking prices for Winkworth properties in London have actually risen following the summer slowdown. Between September and November 2010 asking prices in the capital averaged £539k, a 2% rise on the previous three months when prices average £526k. This rise has been driven by the scarcity yet high demand for larger houses. When these properties come onto the market they are able to command the asking price and above and are driving overall price growth in the capital. (Figure 9)


New Instructions to Sell 40 30 20.0 20 10


10.0 15.0


0.0 5.0


10.0 15.0


0.0 5.0


Properties on Market


before rising again over the autumn and tailing off over the winter. In 2010, sales in London peaked much earlier with a sharp rise in February. Volumes of sales remained fairly stable from February to May before the momentum faded and the summer slowdown took hold. We then saw the autumn pick up in volumes start much later, and it wasn’t until October and November that volumes started to rise. This is probably due to the release of attractive mortgages by lenders in October and November encouraging buyers. Overall, the total number of sales agreed between January and November 2010 was 4% up on the same period 2009 thanks largely to strong activity in the early part of the year.(Figure 10)


Claimant unemployment (m) Bank rate at end of period


20.0 UK key economic indicators


GDP CPI RPI


Claimant unemployment (m) Bank rate at end of period


10.0 15.0


0.0 5.0


2007


3.1% 2.1% 4.1% 0.85


2008 0.8%


3.80% 3.1% 1.05


2009


-4.8% 2.9% 2.4% 1.63


2010 e*


1.8% 3.1% 4.4% 1.47


2011 e*


2.0% 2.8% 3.6% 1.56


5.58% 2.39% 0.50% 0.50% 0.90% * average of latest independent forecasts


200


100 120 140 160 180


20.0 15.0 10.0 20.0


10.0 15.0


0.0 5.0


0.0 5.0


20.0


10.0 15.0


9.Average Time frominstruct ion to sale agreed (WEEKS)


0.0 5.0


9.Average Time frominstruct ion to sale agreed (WEEKS) London - Viewings before Sale Agreed


In November 2010, properties were viewed an average of just over sixteen times before a sale was agreed


Figure 8 London - viewings before sale agreed


20.0 London - Viewings before Sale Agreed House Prices - UK and London £600k £550k RUSSIA 16% £500k Avera £450k £400k Figure 9 House prices - UK and London House Prices - UK and London


100 150 200 250 300


50 0


House Prices - UK and London Uk London 5.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 10.0


100 150 200


50 0 Average Time frominstruction to sal Average T


Central London - Sales Ap Jan2009 = 100


Central L


150 200


Number of Viewings beforeSale agreed Number of Viewings beforeSale agreed 15.0 Centra


Central London -Time to Sell 15.0


Central Lon


RUSSIA 16% 0.0


5.0 9.Average Time frominstruct ion to sale agreed (WEEKS) London - Viewings before Sale Agreed Number of Viewings beforeSale agreed


SAUDI 5% UAE 7%


20 40 60 80


0


SAUDI 5% UAE 7%


3.1% 2.1% 4.1% 0.85


2007


3.1% 2.1% 4.1% 0.85


2008 0.8%


3.80% 3.1% 1.05


2009


-4.8% 2.9% 2.4% 1.63


2010 e*


1.8% 3.1% 4.4% 1.47


2011 e*


2.0% 2.8% 3.6% 1.56


5.58% 2.39% 0.50% 0.50% 0.90% * average of latest independent forecasts


2008 0.8%


3.80% 3.1% 1.05


2009


-4.8% 2.9% 2.4% 1.63


2010 e*


1.8% 3.1% 4.4% 1.47


2011 e*


2.0% 2.8% 3.6% 1.56


5.58% 2.39% 0.50% 0.50% 0.90% * average of latest independent forecasts


200


100 120 140 160 180


Central London - Prospective new Jan2009 = 100


20 40 60 80


0 JAPAN 5% CHINA 10% Numbe 200


100 120 140 160 180


20 40 60 80


0


Central Lond


Central London J


Num


Number of Prospective NewBuyeIN JAPAN 5% CHINA 10%INDIA 6% JAPAN 5% CHINA 10%


SAUDI 5% UAE 7%


RUSSIA 16%FRA


Central L 15.0


10.0


09 r-09 Oct-09


Jul-09 Oct-09


Jan-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Oct-10 Jul-10 Upsizing


More desirable area Downsizing


rea Upsizing Downsizing


Relocation for work Marriage Death


More desirable area Downsizing


Relocation for work Marriage Death


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Relocation for work Marriage Death


Oct-10 Oct-10


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