London - Viewings before Sale Agreed 20.0 London - Viewings before Sale Agreed 20.0
10.0 15.0
0.0 5.0
10.0 15.0
0.0 5.0
Market Analysis Winter 2010/11
taken between instruction and sale of property in central London from an average of just four weeks in June 2010 to two year peak of nine weeks in October. (Figure 13)
£600k
£600k £550k
£550k £500k
£500k £450k
£450k £400k
£400k Number of Viewings beforeSale agreed Number of Viewings beforeSale agreed House Prices - UK and London
100 150 200 250 300
50 0
200
100 120 140 160 180
20 40 60 80
0 200
100 120 140 160 180
20 40 60 80
0
100 150 200 250 300
50 0
Overall stock levels remain a problem. The number of sales appraisals since the last Winkworth Market Report in September has fallen 10% with the number of new instructions falling 14% over the same period. Would-be vendors are still nervous about future economic conditions, where they might invest any equity released from a sale, and the fact there is little demand for anything except the best prime properties. Consequently, they are reluctant to put their properties on the market. The fact that new instructions fell faster than appraisals over the period suggests that owners are still interested in finding out how much their property is worth but are less inclined to instruct an agent than earlier in the year. (Figure 14 & 15)
Uk Uk Sales Agreed
Low demand for “secondary” stock affects overall prices
Sales Agreed CHINA 10% JAPAN 5%
SAUDI 5% UAE 7%
CHINA 10%
SAUDI 5% UAE 7%
While ultra prime property remains in high demand and is able to command multiple offers, the availability of this stock is so scarce that it is has had little impact on overall prices in central London. Over the second half of 2010 we have seen average prices in central London fall from their peak of £971k in July to £878k in November. To some extent this is due to a mix effect of the Winkworth stock rather than like-for-like declines. But the fall in prices can also be attributed
INDIA 6% JAPAN 5% INDIA 6% House Prices - UK and London
to asking price adjustments by vendors whose properties are not deemed to be in the “ultra prime” bracket and therefore are in less demand. Some vendors are choosing to take their properties off the market, but those keen to sell have had to lower their expectations in order to generate interest. (Figure 16)
Sales agreed down on “exaggerated” 2009 figures
London London
Central London - Prospective new Buyers Jan2009 = 100
Central London - Prospective new Buyers Jan2009 = 100
The rush of buyers in the central London market in late 2009 and early 2010 had a significant impact on the number of sales agreed over this period. Sales peaked in February 2010 but have been steadily falling since then. However, this is a sign of the market settling down rather than a sign of underperformance. Looking at the period between January and November 2010 and comparing it to the same period in 2009 we see that the overall number of sales agreed has only fallen 8% year-on-year. (Figure 17)
Would-be vendors are still nervous about future
Number of Prospective NewBuyers New Instructions to Sell Number of Prospective NewBuyers FRA 14% FRA 14% USA 3% AUS 2%
GERMANY 2% SPAIN 5%
USA 3% AUS 2% 10 Market Analysis Winter 2010/11
GERMANY 2% SPAIN 5%
Figure 16 Central London - average monthly sales price
820k 840k 860k 880k 900k 920k 940k 960k 980k
Average Monthly Sale Price Average Monthly Sale Price
820k 840k 860k 880k 900k 920k 940k 960k 980k
100 150 200 250
50 0
economic conditions 15.0 10.0
SAUDI 5% UAE 7%
UAE 7%
GERMANY 2% RUSSIA 16% RUSSIA 16% ITALY 25% ITALY 25%
Central London -Time to Sell (WEEKS)
Figure 13 Central London - time to sell (weeks) 15.0
10.0 5.0
5.0 0.0
0.0 Average Time frominstruction to sale agreed (WEEKS) Average Time frominstruction to sale agreed (WEEKS)
Figure 14 Central London - sales appraisals Jan 2009 = 100
100 150 200
100 150 200
50 50 0 Sales Appraisals
Figure 15 Central London - new instructions to sell Jan 2009 = 100
Central London - New Instructions to Sell Jan2009 = 100
100 150 200 250
50 0
New Instructions to Sell Sales Appraisals
Central London - New Instructions to Sell Jan2009 = 100
0
Central London - Sales Appraisals Jan2009 = 100
Central London - Sales Appraisals Jan2009 = 100
Central London -Time to Sell (WEEKS)
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