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100 150


50 0


London - Viewings before Sale Agreed


200 250


100 150


50 0 40 Sales Appraisals 30


100 150


50 0 0


Figure 6 London - prospective new buyers Jan 2009 = 100


40 200 150


GDP CPI RPI


30


UK key economic indicators 100


Bank rate at end of period 0 0 50 0


Figure 7 London - time to sell (weeks)


20.0 200 15.0 10.0


0.0 5.0


150 100 50 0 9.Average Time frominstruct ion to sale agreed (WEEKS)


Family movers and those looking to upsize accounted for nearly 40% of London’s buyer market


London - Viewings before Sale Agreed 20.0 0


10.0 15.0


0.0 5.0


200 150 300 30 20 10


SAUDI 5% UAE 7%


200


100 150


50 0


Claimant unemployment (m) 50


10 20


2007


3.1% 2.1% 4.1% 0.85


2008 0.8%


3.80% 3.1% 1.05


2009


-4.8% 2.9% 2.4% 1.63


2010 e*


1.8% 3.1% 4.4% 1.47


2011 e*


2.0% 2.8% 3.6% 1.56


5.58% 2.39% 0.50% 0.50% 0.90% * average of latest independent forecasts


200 250


100 150


Properties on Market %


-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6


20 10 New Instructions to Sell


Figure 4 London - sales properties on books Jan 2009 = 100


200 Properties on Market 20.0


10.0 15.0


Market Analysis Winter 2010/11


0.0 5.0


0.0 5.0


Stock is stable but quality remains scarce


£600k Number of Viewings beforeSale agreed 9.Average Time frominstruct ion to sale agreed (WEEKS) 2004


Despite the fall in the number of new instructions over the second half of 2010, overall stock levels have remained fairly consistent. On the whole, 2010 has been a better year in terms of stock availability compared to 2009. Between January and November 2010 average stock levels were 7% above the same period in 2009. This can be attributed to higher overall numbers of new instructions in 2010 compared to 2009 while overall demand fell in 2010 compared to the previous year. (Figure 4)


20.0 £550k £500k


10.0 15.0


£450k


0.0 5.0


£400k 2005 2006 2007 2008


While overall levels of property on the books have been stable, specific types of property such as three and four bedroom houses – typically suitable for families – and two bedroom flats are incredibly scarce. Family movers and those looking to upsize accounted for nearly 40% of London’s buyer market between September and November 2010. As a result, it is these buyers and the scarcity of their target properties that are driving the property market in London. (Figure 5)


100 150 200 250 300


£500k 0 £600k 200


£550k 50


100 120 140 160 180


£450k Sales Appraisals £400k


20 40 60 80


0 New Instructions to Sell


Figure 5 London - most popular reasons to move September - November 2010 50


Properties on Market


100 150 200 250 300


40


CHINA 10% 0


GDP annual growth GDP quarter on quarter growth


New buyers held back by confidence and mortgage availability


House Prices - UK and London London - Viewings before Sale Agreed


2009Number of Viewings beforeSale agreed Uk


2010 London


Central London - Prospective new Buyers Jan2009 = 100


House Prices - UK and London


The overall trend for 2010 has been a falling number of new buyers entering the market with some slight aberrations. We saw a rush of new registrations in April as buyers bought into the pre-election momentum in the property market. And in October we saw a slight uptick as some attractive mortgages became available owing to lenders distributing the last of their funding for the year. These moments aside, overall numbers of new buyers in 2010 have been down 6% on 2009. As well as poor mortgage availability, a lack of confidence in the property market fuelled by conflicting house price reports and negative media sentiment has discouraged buyers. (Figure 6)


UK key economic indicators


GDP CPI RPI


Claimant unemployment (m) Bank rate at end of period


2007


3.1% 2.1% 4.1% 0.85


20.0


10.0 15.0


Sales Agreed


Number of Prospective NewBuyers Uk


London 20.0 INDIA 6%


10.0 15.0


0.0 5.0


JAPAN 5%


Low buyer demand and a fall in the numbers of new properties coming onto the sales market have caused a rise in the time taken to sell property in London. Having stayed fairly stable at an average of just under six and a half weeks between instruction and sale over the first five months of 2010 we saw a peak in June at just over four and a half weeks. This was probably a result of the spring surge in new buyers entering the market and increasing demand. However, over the rest of the summer and autumn when relatively few new properties were hitting the market the average time to sell slowed to just over eight and a half weeks by November – an increase of nearly two weeks. (Figure 7)


0.0 5.0


FRA 14% USA 3% Number of Viewings beforeSale agreed AUS 2% House Prices - UK and London £600k


Sales Agreed £550k


£500k


GERMANY 2% SPAIN 5%


£450k RUSSIA 16% £400k Market Analysis Winter 2010/11


ITALY 25% 7


Uk London 20.0 15.0 10.0


U


2008 0.8%


3.80% 3.1% 1.05


2009


-4.8% 2.9% 2.4% 1.63


2010 e*


1.8% 3.1% 4.4% 1.47


5.58% 2.39% 0.50% 0.50% * average of latest independent forecasts


9.Average Time frominstruct ion to sale agreed (WEEKS)


London - Viewings before Sale Agreed


Jan-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Apr-09 Upsizing


More desirable area Downsizing


Jul-09 Oct-09


Relocation for work Marriage Death


Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10


More desirable area Downsizing


Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10


Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10


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Upsizing


Relocation for work Marriage Death


Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10


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More desirable area Downsizing


Relocation for work Marriage Death


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Oct-10


Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Ju


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Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10


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Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10


Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-1 N


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