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The Sunday Times


SUNDAY


D e cember 12, 2010 Edit orials


WikiLeaks, diplomacy and geopolitics


FTER WikiLeaks released the much-anticipated first wave of more than 250,000 US State Department diplomatic cables in November, and subsequently much more until today—and there will surely be more—the world continues go on its for some merry, for most sad and even tragic, ways of successes and failures. The WikiLeaks have not yielded any surprises or completely un-


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known revelations. They simply confirm items that have been in the rumor mill in diplomatic circles. Journalist-authors of analyses have even written about them. Like the cables revealing that Saudi Arabia wants the USA to stop Iran not only from becoming a nuclear-armed power but also from continuing to grow its influence in the Middle East, everybody who had some knowledge of Middle-East geopoli- tics could guess that the Saudi rulers and most other entrenched fami- lies in the Arab world desire the humbling of Iran. What the releases these past weeks, just like those released in July and


October, cables and military documents about Afghanistan and Iraq, yielded no information that would change allegiances and alliances. The WikiLeaked cables do not have the gravity of the Pentagon


Papers that compromised American security and political alignments. STRATFOR in an analysis titled, “WikiLeaks and American Diplo-


macy,” offers this insight to the amateur: “In war, secrecy is of paramount importance. But the value and sensi- tivity of a secret that is truly actionable is often of a very short-lived nature (as opposed to the continued classification of material that is merely embarrassing). The trick with intelligence in war is that you can never quite know what tidbit of information your adversary might make useful. But perhaps the single most important and unambiguous lesson of the WikiLeaks releases of Iraq and Afghan war documents has not so much been a security problem (though obviously there was a very im- portant one) but of how overloaded the classification system has be- come with information of marginal and short-term sensitivity. So many were accessing so much mundane, day-to-day information that no one noticed when something important (in this case enormous quantities of low-level sensitivity) was being accessed and moved inappropriately: the WikiLeaks releases are a symptom of a classification system that is broken—and not just because someone managed to leak so much.” And STRATFOR rightly avers that “Nothing that WikiLeaks has re- leased so far—about the Iraq and Afghan wars or American diplo- macy—has changed geopolitics.” It continues: “Interestingly, few of the more than 250,000 diplomatic cables are actually classified—though they were never intended for public consumption. But the real significant difference is the game that is being played: a diplomatic rather than military one. In the practice of diplo- macy, no one should be surprised that a country behaves one way and says another. When two leaders talk, their ability to speak in confidence is essential for moving beyond the pomp, circumstance and atmospherics that diplomacy has always entailed. Indeed, the very act of two leaders talking is the product of innumerable back-channel negotiations and con- fidential understandings. And even in supposedly more transparent demo- cratic societies, the exigencies of foreign affairs dictate discretion and flex- ibility. Diplomacy not only requires compromise, but by its nature, it vio- lates ideals and requires multiple layers of deception and manipulation.” “Everyone already knows this is how the game is played, and leaders in


Washington and beyond have already demonstrated that countries with real problems to work on are not going to let a glimpse of what goes on behind closed doors interrupt important geopolitical relationships. With the release of these cables, everyone now knows what U.S. diplomats think of Moammar Gadhafi. It may impact U.S.-Libyan relations temporarily, but only if Libya was already in the market for an excuse to muck up the works. It would be far more problematic if the WikiLeaks revealed that the U.S. State Department was working with an unrealistic political as- sessment of what a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was going to be like than the fact that what everyone reads in the tabloids also made it into a diplomatic cable. “What’s more, the idea that WikiLeaks could hurt diplomatic relation- ships between the United States and the rest of the world also assumes that the rest of the world conducts diplomacy in a more ‘honest’ man- ner—it does not—or that it somehow does not fear that one day its own dispatches may be laid barren for all to see—it does. And given American intelligence capabilities, there’s a good chance most countries do not want to gamble on whether the United States is already reading them.” So the games diplomats play and the more serious matter of geo- politics will go on.


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The Philippines, China and the USA


CABLE reveals that the US Embassy had warned Washington of our government’s possible ambivalence between America and China and would choose about 30 years from now. That ambivalence is something in the minds of many Filipinos. We hazard the guess that, if a pool were taken, most Filipinos would


say they worry that before long the Philippines would become an over- seas province of the People’s Republic. But that complaint has nothing much to do with the actual growth in economic and military power, and in influence over Filipino business and political leaders, of the Commu- nist-Party ruled but state-capitalism practicing People’s Republic of China. For that sentiment has been around among the Filipinos—including non-Chinese speaking Filipinos of Chinese descent—when they real- ized that most of the wealthy and powerful in our country are Tsinoys, that the most influential prince of the Church was a Tsinoy, that he and the lady who overthrew the Marcos martial law regime were both of Chinese descent, and so was the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court who swore in the first President Aquino, etcetera, etcetera. To balance the fear of China—and the fear of losing the image of being the “Brown Americans” of Asia—there is, however, the thought that the most articulate and actively involved in Philippine affairs among the 11 million overseas Filipino workers are those profession- als who work and live in the United States. And these are also the ones who send the most money to their families. Another thought is that the most respected national hero in our pantheon is Jose Rizal, a Tsinoy. But one who, in his time, was proud to be the equal of any worthy European gentleman.


SUNDAY December 12, 2010 The Manila Times DANTE F. M. ANG 2ND, Executive Editor


FRED DE LA ROSA, Chairman Editorial Board RENE Q. BAS, Editor in Chief ROMY P. MARIÑAS, News Editor


ARNOLD S. TENORIO, Business Editor CONRAD M. CARIÑO, National Editor


TESSA MAURICIO-ARRIOLA, Lifestyle Editor ARIS L. SOLIS, Regions Editor


PERRY GIL MALLARI, Acting Sports Editor BRIAN M. AFUANG, Art Director RENE H. DILAN, Photo Editor


 DANTE F. M. ANG 2ND, President and CEO


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THE MANILA TIMES is published daily at 2/F Dante Ang and Associates Building, 409 A. Soriano Avenue, Intramuros, Manila 1002


VOLUME 112 NUMBER 062


The soft bigotry of average expectations T


HE government of President Aquino 3rd has been running the affairs of the nation on two non-complementary paradigms. The first one is governing with in- tegrity at the highest level, mean- ing at the level of the President, which was the grand theme of his presidential campaign.


This has been a generator of goodwill and confidence. This, also, has translated into invest- ments and jobs, and hope and expectations across the board. The high approval ratings of the President have been based on his personal conduct and discretion. People really don’t mind that he spends his private time with bil- liards and the girls. The Everyman just don’t want his President in- dulging in whitewater rafting. The second one, in contrast, is depressing: the lack of boldness, the sheer orthodoxy, of the gov- ernment programs. You check what the government has been doing and what you see are for- mulaic programs that are de- signed to ensure six years of peaceful governing by the Presi- dent, their boss. Nothing more, nothing less. Indeed, the soft big- otry of average expectations. The state programs seem to dis- regard where success in every part of the globe is coming from now— from leaders who overreach. If there is a time to display boldness and creativity on the part of the state, it is now. We have seen where the timid leaders have taken their once- great countries, the US for one. To stimulate the economy, the Philippine government agenda is built around the PPPs, or public- private partnerships. The govern- ment will ease the regulatory envi-


MARLEN V. RONQUILLO


ronment and roll out the prover- bial red carpet to entice the private sector into building everything— from airports to irrigation facilities. This is the expectation of gov- ernment: the antiquated infra- structure network would be mod- ernized with limited government exposure. The building frenzy will be bankrolled by private money. The fiscal discipline of the


state, according to the game plan, would reap all those upgrades from the ratings agencies, which would generate creditworthiness and investments. Poverty? The government has the cash dole-out precisely for this. On paper, people can’t com- plain against a lot of things about this standard-issue approach to governing. Who does not approve of fiscal discipline, especially in a global context of Ireland, Greece, Iceland and Spain? Who does not approve of cash bonan- zas to the poorest of the poor? But once you get past the gov-


erning orthodoxy, you will see that the real world has a different set of needs to stimulate growth. This is not a timid spending pro- gram, one always obsessing with reining in budgetary deficits. Or placating the poorest of the poor. Let us take the case of Arangkada Pilipinas, the roadmap to growth


prepared by the Foreign Chambers of Commerce. The Arangkada cites seven major drivers of economic growth: agri-business, ICT-BPO, infrastructure, manufacturing and logistics, mining, tourism etc. And then, we ask the most critical ques- tions: Is the government’s spend- ing program ready to prop up the drivers of growth? For decades, the agri-business gi-


ants have been carrying the load of making agriculture grow. They can’t stretch their investments and pro- ductive capacity any longer. So, the growth must come from the lethar- gic areas that have so much room for growth—the small-scale farms with limitless absorptive capacities. The government spending pro- gram for 2011 does not contain any- thing that would boost the small- scale farms and transform them into zones of profitability and produc- tivity. The budget for agriculture next year is P21-billion short of what is required. The public research uni- versities that carry out all the won- drous research and development work for agricultural genetics have been castrated, budget-wise. Unless you take out P10 billion from the cash dole-outs and con- vert the P10 billion into loans for various feasible agri-business projects at the small farms, then you have no tools and no strategy to make agri-business a stimulator of growth. As I said earlier, the agri- business giants are already stretched out on their investments and many have been scaling down their agri- business investments and shifting into power, mining, telecoms etc. The government has to step in an fill up the investment void. Of the seven drivers cited by Arangkada, the ICT-BPO sector,


from all benchmarks, takes the stellar, lead role. Because what is required is armies of trained ICT- equipped workers with both tech- nical and communication skills. Here, we have no rival except In- dia, whose rise in wage levels makes the Philippines doubly at- tractive to BPO locators. But do we have the funds to ramp


up ICT training? Have we allocated tens of millions of pesos to train our young college graduates in English proficiency, network technologies, programming and embedded tech- nologies? Sadly, the answer is no. We have billions for cash dole-outs and nothing for an inspired skills ICT-anchored training program. The truth is there is a one year


ICT training program embedded within UP that has a guaranteed 100 percent employment for its certifi- cate holders. It is an amazing suc- cess story, done relatively cheap. After a year, its graduates are snapped out by global technology and BPO companies. One year of training and young Filipinos with degrees in physics, literature


or


business administration are already adequate for the ICT job market. But the top people who have designed our vital programs seem to be oblivious of the great accom- plishments of government done at a very little cost but with lots of planning and creativity. They can’t see beyond the old and tired pro- grams—perhaps safe and un- controversial—but without the boldness needed to make the country ride on a crest of devel- opment where more imaginative and bolder leaders, some from unlikely places, have taken theirs.


mvrong@yahoo.com World Bank gives President Aquino full marks N


EW World Bank Group Man aging Director Sri Mulyani


Indrawati has assured President Benigno Aquino 3rd of the WB’s strong support for the adminis- tration’s good governance and anti-poverty agenda.


In a meeting at Malacañang


Palace Indrawati reiterated World Bank President Robert Zoellick’s support for the overall policy di- rection the Aquino administration is taking. Zoellick had earlier of- fered his positive assessment dur- ing a meeting at the sidelines of the United Nations High Level Meeting on the Millennium De- velopment Goals in New York City in September this year. Said Indrawati in Manila: “The


World Bank Group is pleased to support the President’s major policy initiatives, including clean government, better social protection, expansion of educa- tion and healthcare for the underserved and better infra- structure through private-public partnerships. And we are ready to step up our support if the gov- ernment so desires.” Indrawati is one of the three managing directors who, with President Robert Zoellick, form the World Bank Senior Manage- ment Team. She is responsible for the Bank’s operations in Latin America and the Caribbean, East Asia and the Pacific, and the Mid- dle East and North Africa. She also oversees the Integrity Vice Presidency and Information Sys-


RANDOM JOTTINGS


tems Group, in addition to pro- viding strategic leadership for the Bank’s governance and anti-cor- ruption activities and work with middle income countries After meeting the President,


Indrawati noted that “President Aquino has clearly expressed his strong political commitment to improve governance in the Phil- ippines. With many Filipinos believing in him, this opens up opportunities to advance re- forms that will accelerate the country’s development.” Indrawati, who was making her first visit to the Philippines, pointed out that the Philippines economy has been doing well lately, with an estimated growth rate of 6.2 percent for 2010, which puts the Philippines back on its pre-crisis growth. She said that the government’s plan to improve infrastructure and to streamline business procedure and red tape should help sustain this growth. “We are happy to support the gov- ernment’s public-private partner- ship agenda and infrastructure program, in terms of advice as well as finance,” Indrawati said.


Before her meeting at Mala- cañang, Indrawati visited an ur- ban poor community in Pasay City benefiting from the Condi- tional Cash Transfer (CCT) program known as Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps). She met with Mayor Antonino Calixto, Department of Social Welfare and Development Secretary Corazon Soliman, and local officials and parent leaders.


She observed some of the mi-


cro livelihood projects of the par- ent beneficiaries, who receive cash assistance on the condition they continue to send their chil- dren to school and submit them to regular immunization and health check-ups. One CCT beneficiary, Josephine Manuel, a housewife whose fam- ily was cited as a model CCT ben- eficiary in Pasay, said: “The cash we receive has been of great help. I can now easily buy the supplies for the children’s school projects as they need them and they are now more persevering in attend- ing classes.” She, like most other beneficiaries who shared their ex- perience, said they use the addi- tional money from CCT mostly for the children’s needs like food, vitamins and medicines. The CCT is expected to reach one million households by the end of the year and 2.3 million by the end of next year. The pro- gram, supported by the World Bank, forms part of the DSWD’s contribution to poverty reduc-


tion, which also includes Kapit Bisig Laban sa Kahirapan–Com- prehensive and Integrated Deliv- ery of Social Services (Kalahi- CIDSS) and Self-employment Assistance–Kaunlaran (SEA-K) that creates job opportunities. “As demonstrated by experi- ence in other countries, the CCT is a program that can make a big difference in poverty, as it allows the poor to invest in human capi- tal. Equally important is the ad- ministration’s larger reform agenda in social protection, which strengthens institutional capacity and cuts inefficient pro- grams,” said Indrawati who also noted that the administration’s infrastructure/ public-private partnership agenda and reforms to ease doing business in the Phil- ippines should make recent higher growth rates sustainable and create more jobs for the poor. Apart from the CCT, the World


Bank’s assistance for social wel- fare and development reform also includes the implementa- tion of a National Household Targeting System for Poverty Re- duction. The targeting system consists of a set of uniform, ob- jective, and transparent criteria to select the poor who will ben- efit from social welfare pro- grams. This reduces the cost of targeting, improves coordination and promotes efficiency and ef- fectiveness of social programs.


rjottings@yahoo.com


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