High


(Severe) (High) (Medium) Low (Low)


4 3 2 1


Low IMPACT


4 3


(Low)


2 1 1


8 6


(Medium)


4 2 2


12 9


(High)


6 3 3


16 12


(Severe)


8 4 4


High


One advantage of the 4 x 4 grid over a 3 x 3 version is that it stops people being non-committal and plumping for the middle ground, while still keeping things simple. Also, some people like a “score” rather than the seemingly more subjective words as it looks a little more scientific, insofar as we multiply the likelihood and impact numbers together to arrive at the risk rating. But, actually, it doesn’t really matter. Because when we look at likelihood and impact, we’re really trying to determine which are the most significant of the risks – in other words, which are the ones that are most likely to happen, and which are the ones with the most serious consequences. The important thing here is that the risks we’re most interested in, and that we really ought to do something about, are those that fall in the top right-hand corner and the ones that we’re least bothered about fall in the bottom left.


It can be helpful to colour code the squares in the matrix green, amber and red, to indicate the seriousness and priority for action for any given risk, and to carry this colour coding through to our risk register (see page 78).


CHAPTER 3 49


LIKELIHOOD


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