10-02 :: February 2010
Fraunhofer ISE (BSW Solar): Determination of the Extend of a Further
Reduction in the Feed-in Tariff for Solar Electricity in 2010
At present an additional reduction in the feed-in • A further market growth is to be expected even if
tariff for solar electricity for spring / summer 2010 is the feed-in remuneration is reduced further. It is
being discussed. This study investigates to what ex- expected that due to the present worldwide
tent an additional reduction would be appropriate. overcapacity, the Asian manufacturers will reduce
their prices, irrespective of the real production
• In 2009, the prices for PV systems up to 100 kWp costs. This price reduction is intended to make
sunk by 25.6%, whereas the feed-in remuneration investments further attractive and stimulate the
was reduced by only 9% to 11% in January 2010. demand.
Therefore, an additional one-time reduction in • There is a high probability that the PV production
2010 is possible. in Germany would decrease as a result of a larger
• The large price reduction evidenced in 2009 reduction in the feed-in tariff, because the
compensates, in part, for the price stagnation and production would no longer be economically
price increase in 2005 and 2006 and the smaller attractive, despite the increase in efficiency. As a
price reductions in 2008. When considering the result, it is highly probable that jobs would be lost.
price development, therefore, observations should • A commensurate reduction of the feed-in tariff,
be based on the long-term. which is oriented on the real cost reduction is a
• Prognos AG recommended that the feed-in necessary, but not sufficient, prerequisite for
remuneration for PV systems be reduced by 16% to maintaining the PV production in Germany. The
17%. The yield calculations from Prognos AG, German manufacturers are only able to compete
however, exhibit electricity production costs and with the Asian PV manufacturers if they hold the
system costs that are both too low. technological lead. This requires a definite
• The calculations carried out in this study show that expansion in the research and development
a one-time additional reduction of 6% for PV efforts in Germany and an increase in the
systems up to 30 kWp and 10% for PV systems up research funding.
to 100 kWp respectively would be appropriate.