Environmental Food Crisis
The Environmental Food
Crisis in Asia – a ‘blue
revolution’ in water effi ciency is
needed to adapt to Asia’s looming
water crisis
Christian Nellemann, United Nations Environment Programme GRID-Arendal, Norway, christian.nellemann@nina.no
Bjørn Petter Kaltenborn, Norwegian Institute for Natural Science (NINA), Trondheim, Norway, bjorn.kaltenborn@nina.no
T
he water towers of the Hindu Kush-Himalayas, increased incomes, and growing consumption of meat.
the Pamir, Tian Shan, and Kunlun Shan In Pakistan, for example, one of the countries with the
mountain ranges, constitute the primary water highest water scarcity and extreme dependency upon
resources for a large part of Asia’s population and the Indus River, the population is projected to increase
food production. The majority of the water, some 75 from around 184 million in 2010 to around 335
to 90%, is used in food production. However, while million by 2050, an 82% increase. By then, meat
many people and farmers are already challenged consumption per capita will have doubled worldwide
by seasonal water scarcity and disrupted monsoon and over half of the world’s cereals will be used to feed
patterns, the reliability of the overall water supply is livestock, up from one-third today. Indeed, this cereal
at growing risk. alone could have fed the entire projected population
growth. Instead, unless changes are made, our water
There are three major reasons why water scarcity
consumption to grow irrigated cereals for animal feed
is going to increase. Firstly, population growth is
will have to increase by at least 30 to 50%, if not more,
increasing the demand for water, and although only
simply to support heavily fertiliser-based production
10 to 25% of the water is used for households and
schemes. In some regions, as in Pakistan, water demand
industry, rising populations will also raise the agricultural
will increase by 50 to 70% by 2050, and probably
production demand for water. Secondly, the higher
before, while availability will at the same time decline.
demand for cereals for production of animal feed and
In many regions, this water is already not available in
for human consumption will increase water demand
the dry seasons, when it is needed the most.
by an additional 30 to 50% in a few decades; and
perhaps by 70 to 80% by 2050. Thirdly, climate
change may not only disrupt monsoon patterns, it may
Reduced amount of glaciers and snow jeopardise
also signifi cantly alter the main fl ow and seasonality of
Asian and world food production
many of the large Asian rivers within a few decades, Irrigated croplands, mainly rice, in the watersheds of
with disastrous impacts on food production as a result. the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Huang He
(Yellow River), Tarim, Syr Darya, and Amu Darya are
Nearly 100,000 children are born every day in
all, to varying extents, dependent on glacial water and
Asia
snowmelt from the mountains. With rising temperatures,
combined with changes in the monsoon, a substantial
The demand for food and irrigation water will continue
part of the glaciated area may be lost within this century.
to increase towards 2050 as a result of population
While data is sparse in this region, observations from
growth of an additional one billion people in Asia,
Nepal indicate that current warming at high altitudes
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