LEGISLATION
is surprising to note that "carbon reductions a backdrop of 30% increase in airport target, unless it is amended or repealed by
targets" are only mentioned once in the capacity at Heathrow alone, an annual 2.37% parliament.
decision document on Heathrow expansion, improvement in fuel effi ciency between 2000 Even without the expansion of aviation
Adding Capacity at Heathrow - Decisions and 2050 as predicted by the Department for capacity, if the 80% target is achieved, up
Following Consultation, published in January Transport appears to offer limited assistance to 37% of all UK emissions in 2050 will
2009. The secretary of state did include in the UK's attempts to meet the 80% target. be attributable to aviation. If expansion of
a target to keep 2050 aviation emissions capacity can be achieved while maintaining
at 2005 levels in the speech to
The challenge ahead
2005 levels of aviation emissions, the UK
parliament that accompanied the Holding carbon emissions from aviation will have to simultaneously achieve full
decision document. This target at 2005 levels while air travel grows and decarbonisation of the power sector by 2030
seems ambitious in light of capacity in the UK is increased will be in order to achieve the 80% target.
evidence presented by the an enormous challenge. However the Given the scale of that task, it can only be
government will be partially assisted in that concluded that there is a signifi cant risk that
challenge by the inclusion of aviation in the the 80% target will not be met.
EU ETS. The EU ETS will set a cap on all The consequences of a breach of the target
emissions from aircraft taking off and landing are as yet unknown. There are no remedies
in the EU at 97% of 2005 levels in 2012. specifi ed in the Act. However, the three
secretary of state on the same day Yet the 80% target is absolute and, unlike obvious consequences of a breach of this duty
(quoted above) citing predicted the EU ETS, does not allow for sectors to - compensation for victims of the breach of
growth in aviation emissions of 60% over the purchase allowances to meet the 80% target. duty, criminal sanctions against the secretary
same timescale. Therefore, although expanding aviation of state in breach, or orders for corrective
The secretary of state has asked the CCC can remain within the EU ETS cap, through action - seem to be either too individualistic
to consider how to bridge the gap between taking advantage of abatement in other and ill-equipped to manage a government
the 0% increase he requires to meet the 80% sectors, in relation to the 80% target, those failure in the fi eld of climate change.
target and the 60% increase forecast. allowances will be meaningless, only the The most obvious result of a successful
In light of the decision to allow an absolute emissions data will be considered. judicial review would be for the judiciary
increase in air traffi c movements at Heathrow As set out above, if aviation emissions to restrict themselves to a statement that if
from 477,000 per year to 605,000 per year stay at 2005 levels, the total fi gure for UK sanctions were meant to have been imposed
(with a potential capacity of 702,000), emissions from other sources in 2050 must by parliament then they should have been so
research indicates that to stand any prospect be no more than 121.5Mt CO2. The CCC installed in the wording of the statute itself.
of meeting the 80% target there can be no predicts that to achieve that target, the main There are therefore serious doubts that there
other expansion of UK capacity before 2050, requirement is for UK energy production to is any meaningful sanction in the case of a
and some regional airports may need to be be fully de-carbonised by 2030. breach of the 'legally binding' 80% target.
scaled back. This, according to the CCC, is possible; The rains of fulfi llment of the 80% target
however, it is a challenge that goes far therefore look to be a long way over the
Abatement measures
beyond the ambition of the government's horizon.
Due to the cost and timescales required to current energy strategy, which targets 20%
design and build new aircraft and engines, renewables by 2020. Alex Meredith is an associate in the climate
aviation is predicted to make negligible short- The government and successive change team at Hunton & Williams.
term internal abatement efforts. governments will be bound by the 80% ameredith@hunton.com
Also the appetite to conduct expensive
retro-fi ts is not apparent among cash-strapped
industry players.
Despite this reluctance, over long
timescales aircraft engines are gradually
‘
There can be no other
becoming more effi cient and will continue expansion of UK capacity
to improve, with the Advisory Council for
Aviation Research in Europe (ACARE)
before 2050
setting targets to 2020 and claiming yearly
2% improvements in fuel effi ciency are ’
possible as aircraft are gradually replaced
by more fuel effi cient models than those in
service in 2000.
Biofuels have also been tested, though
the environmental impact of producing
enough biofuel to make it a viable large-scale
prospect for aviation, and the fall in oil prices
have seen interest in biofuel subside.
Even if achievable, when set against
SUSTAINABLE SOLUTIONS April 2009 13
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