LEGISLATION
Crash landing:
Will airport expansion cause turbulence for
emissions reduction targets?
Is the government's carbon emissions reduction target of 80% legally binding when it
comes to airport expansion? Alex Meredith reports.
"
A
PROMISE IS a cloud" has so failed. There are a number of areas in The CCC
says an old Arabic which the secretary of state retains discretion makes a clear
proverb, "fulfi llment is as to incorporating aviation and shipping: statement on the current CO2
rain." This seems an notably Clause 30 allows the secretary of emissions attributable to aviation:
apt metaphor when trying to review the state to designate different base years and the "In 2005: UK Aviation CO2 emissions
UK's carbon emissions reduction target methodology for emissions calculations has (both domestic and international) amounted
against the backdrop of airport expansion. yet to be offi cially settled. to 37.5Mt CO2 (based on bunker fuels
The UK government has set its carbon It is therefore possible that the methodology)."
emissions reduction target at 80% of 1990 government may choose to incorporate As to future levels, the Department for
levels. In light of recent decisions on aviation within the 80% target, using an Transport forecasts: "UK aviation CO2
airport expansion, is this 'legally binding' unusual baseline year, or by applying a emissions (covering both domestic and
commitment any more than a cloudy limited defi nition of 'international aviation' or international aviation) are forecast to grow
promise? by calculating emissions attributable to the from 37.5Mt CO2 in 2005 to 58.4Mt CO2 in
UK from international aviation in a way that 2030.....After 2030, the growth in aviation
Climate
Change Act
is sympathetic to the 80% target. emissions is projected to slow........by 2050
Though much of the initiative in relation However, the government has already aviation emissions are projected to have
to emissions target-setting has historically established a methodology for calculating stabilised and reached 59.9Mt CO2".
been taken by the European Union, the UK international aviation emissions attributable
UK emissions landscape
now has a domestic statute - the Climate to the UK that is consistent with United
Simple arithmetic illustrates how important
Change Act 2008 (the Act) that commits Nations requirements and it seems likely
aviation will be in terms of the UK emissions
the state to long-term action on climate that this course will continue. In relation
landscape in 2050:
change that goes further than international to the baseline year, the Committee on
requirements. Climate Change (CCC) (established by the n If the UK is to succeed in meeting the
The headline feature of the Act Act to advise the government on climate 80% target, emissions in 2050 must not
enshrines the 'legally binding' target of a change) has been asked to report on aviation exceed 159 million tonnes CO2 equivalent
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in emissions reductions based on 2005 levels, (MT CO2e)
the UK of at least 80% by 2050, compared which is consistent with the European Union n UK aviation emissions in 2050 are
to a 1990 baseline. approach in relation to the incorporation predicted to stand at 59.9Mt CO2e
Clause 1(1) of the Act sets out the target of aviation within the European Union n Therefore, for the UK not to breach
in the following terms: Emissions Trading Scheme (the EU ETS). the 80% target, by 2050 aviation must
"It is the duty of the secretary of state to amount to no more than 37.7% of all UK
ensure that the net UK carbon account for
A
viation's contribution
greenhouse emissions.
the year 2050 is at least 80% lower than the Aviation poses a challenge to this and
Impact of expansion
1990 baseline" (the 80% Target). successive governments, as unlike many
Though currently, Clause 30 of the other sources of CO2, aviation emissions The expansion of airport capacity was fi rst
Act excludes international aviation and continue to grow. Global demand for aviation offi cially promoted by the UK government in
international shipping from the calculation has increased at roughly 5% per annum The Future of Air Transport white paper in
of UK emissions for the purposes of the over the past decade and forecasts indicate December 2003 (the White Paper).
80% target, Clause 30(2) requires the a global four-fold increase in aviation The 80% target was not agreed until
secretary of state to make provision for the emissions by 2050 based on today's levels. nearly fi ve years later. Nevertheless, in
inclusion of these emissions sources in the This rapid growth makes the forecasts of light of the dramatic impact that aviation
80% target by the end of 2012, and if it fails aviation emissions an instrumental part of the emissions are forecast to have on the ability
to do so to explain to parliament why it UK's emissions calculation. of the government to meet its 80% target, it
12 SUSTAINABLE SOLUTIONS April 2009
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