CFIp18-19_interview.qxd 27/2/09 11:27 Page 27
Interview | 19
The question of who is to blame for the
recent problems is fascinating. Everyone is
entitled to their view. Standing back and
trying to see the big picture it occurs to me
that everyone involved shared the same
optimistic views and became less concerned
about risk.
With the benefit of hindsight we can see
now that it was inevitable that property prices
could not go up forever, the capital markets
were not limitless. Demand would sooner or
later be satisfied and we would reach
saturation point in the number of buy to let
investors, tenants, homeowners, mortgage
arrangers.
In addition we can now see that there
would have to be a slowdown in the provision
of all goods and services and that continual
unrestrained growth was impossible to
maintain. We all have to get used to the new
circumstances and this is a time for the most
skilled and most professional operators to not
only survive but prosper.
If there was one aspect of the
current market you could
improve, what would it be?
I am asked if there is one aspect of the current
market that I could improve what would it be.
I would take innovative action and introduce
legislation to limit the rate of interest that cred-
it card companies could charge good borrowers
for fairly small consumer credit facilities. It is
my perception that to get the economy moving
the man in the street needs a real boost and it
is all well and good reducing VAT a little and
seeing the Bank of England reducing interest
rates to almost zero but this has only modest
effect if credit card companies are charging
high interest rates, and even increasing them at
this time.
Where do you think the market
will be in 2012?
Finally I am asked when do I think the market
will recover and where do I think it will be in
2012? I do not hold the view that the market
will recover to what it was as I think it has
changed and we are looking at a new market.
This is my expectation at least for the long
period ahead whilst people in control remem-
ber this recession and the causes of it. History
has taught us that in the very long run the les-
sons will be forgotten and we are likely to do it
all over again.
I expect the economy to improve a little in
2012 and I expect there to be more demand
for credit and that includes mortgages. I expect
by then that the worst of the credit losses will
have surfaced and been accounted for and the
financial community will have come to the
view that there are better times ahead and
hence lending and sensible risk taking is
worthwhile.
www.mortgageintroducer.com March 2009 Commercial finance Introducer
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