Asia – Cover story
The East is set to continue its economic rise, bringing with it an abundance of invest- ment treasures, finds Andrew Holt.
James Donald, head of emerging markets at Lazard Asset Man- agement, says India overtaking China to become the world’s most populous country presents a compelling case for more investment opportunity over the next decade. With its demographic dividend and nearly 80% of its popula- tion under the age of 50, India is projected to produce decades of growth until the 2060s.
India has all the positives going for it now, says Rob Brewis, manager of the Aubrey Global Emerging Markets strategy. These include positive government policies and accelerating urbanisation. “India has some decent, high return growth companies to invest in,” he adds. Moreover, it will be the world’s third largest economy in the next few years. And for Alan Lander, investment manager at Walter Scott & Partners, which is part of BNY Mellon Investment Manage- ment, India’s journey “has been one of the great economic tec- tonic shifts of recent decades”. Yet, he says, “an air of ‘promise unfulfilled’ has often clung to the Indian economy”.
Don’t forget China
That perception, he notes, may well be about to change. “On track to surpass China later this year as the world’s most popu-
lous nation, there is a growing sense that India stands on the cusp of an exciting new stage in its development,” Lander says. But one should not disregard China. It will still remain a big part in the story of the continuing rise of the East, despite not maintaining its pre-eminent position.
“China remains an important factor for future Asian growth, despite the expected decelerating of its headline GDP growth, with just 4% to 5% real growth expected in the next few years,” Vivian Lin Thurston says.
In addition, she adds that China is also a major source of growth for some Asian countries within the wider rise of the East. This is especially true in the Association of Southeast Asian Nation countries, due primarily to high Chinese demand for commodities, the shift to relocate global supply chains and high levels of Chinese tourism.
Young blood
Also within the growth of the East is the shift in the measure of Asian GDP within global trade. The region claims around 60% of the world’s population and around 45% of global GDP. The lat- ter figure is expected to grow, with the prediction that this decade, and beyond, is likely to see a continued outperformance by Asia.
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