L E A D IN G E D GE
W
hen illustrating how quickly disruption can occur in the transport sector, academics and experts often point to an iconic photograph of the Easter Parade on New York’s Fifth Avenue in 1900. “Can you spot the single car amongst the horse- drawn carriages?” they’ll ask.
An identically framed photo of the same parade, this time in
1913, and you’ll struggle to spot a single horse-drawn carriage. While the inevitable shift from internal combustion engine
(ICE) vehicles to electric, or even autonomous electric, may not seem at first glance to spell disaster for traditional car makers in the same way the appearance of the first cars did for carriage makers, a number of other factors are expected to contribute to a massive decrease in private vehicle ownership and potentially the number of cars on our roads. RethinkX, an independent think tank that analyses and
forecasts the scope, speed and scale of technology-driven disruption and its implications, predicts that automation, battery technologies, and connectivity will converge to create Autonomous Electric Vehicles (AEVs) operating in a system they call TaaS—Transport as a Service. Looking at the United States, James Arbib, RethinkX
founder, predicts that within 10 years of the regulatory approval of Autonomous Vehicles, 95% of passenger miles will be done by fleets of AEVs—possibly as soon as 2030. “The TaaS disruption will have enormous implications
across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portions of their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, destroying trillions of dollars in investor value—but also creating trillions of dollars in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth,” write Arbib and his colleague Tony Seba in RethinkX’s Rethinking Transportation Report. While RethinkX’s predictions are seen as being at the more radical end of futuristic modelling, most experts agree we
are heading towards a future with more electrification and autonomy, cars with far longer lifespans, and less private vehicle ownership. Will the family car-making giants use their legacies of
resilience to stay ahead? Or will reluctance to farewell old business models see them decimated by agile newbies like Tesla?
ISSUE 73 | 2018
CAMPDENFB.COM 79
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