December: "An estimate by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and the World Bank shows that RCEP's five non-ASEAN members will see their combined trade balance improve by $12.7 billion a year. But for ASEAN, the balance will worsen by $17.3 billion. By country, the balance is expected to deteriorate for seven of the 10 members, except for Singapore, Laos and Brunei. "China's trade balance is also
estimated to worsen by $1.3 billion. Japan is estimated to enjoy the best improvement at $16.7 billion thanks to increased
China and South Korea, followed by Australia at $2.9 billion. But the estimate was issued shortly before RCEP was signed and does not reflect the tariff cuts for individual items that were not available while negotiations were ongoing." Meanwhile, the fear in the EU
is that RCEP will not only make Europe less competitive in one of the world’s fastest-growing markets, but could also dampen European ambitions to be a rule-maker in the global digital economy, according to Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre in Singapore. “As RCEP integration
continues, the region might start to craft arrangements and standards
exports to
that are purely Asian, with less attempt to align to European rules or standards,” she said. “It’s not just about China. All of RCEP will likely be included in creating new pathways and economic frameworks for trade in future.”
INDIA PERSPECTIVE India Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced his country was pulling out of the RCEP deal shortly before its signing in November. The abrupt withdrawal was apparently sparked by fears that India would be flooded with cheap goods from China and elsewhere. India already runs a large trade deficit with RCEP countries and wanted specific protections for its industry and farmers, which were not forthcoming. Now, India is looking elsewhere
and the UK is at the forefront to secure a deal, as evidenced by Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plan to visit India in January - a trip that had to be belatedly postponed until later in the year because of the UK's latest Covid-19 lockdown. Mr Johnson's post-Brexit
determination to forge links with Asia-Pacific region have also been illustrated by the fact he has invited India, Australia and South Korea to join the G7 summit that Britain is hosting later this year.
forward "to delivering the quantum leap in our bilateral
Mr Johnson said he was looking relationship
that Prime Minister Modi and I have pledged to achieve". He added: “As a key player in the Indo-Pacific region, India is an increasingly indispensable partner for the United Kingdom as we work to boost jobs and growth, confront shared threats to our security and protect our planet.” A government spokesman in
London said that Mr Johnson's aim in India was to boost cooperation in areas that would be foreign policy priorities for the UK throughout 2021 "from trade and investment, to defence and security, and health and climate change". Mr Johnson, it seems, is one not-
so-young man now determined to look East.
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