INDUSTRY COMMENT: BHETA
GLOBAL VOLATILITY DEMANDS EVEN GREATER RESILIENCE
With the conflict in the Middle East increasing fuel prices and causing further economic uncertainty, Steve Edwards, BHETA’s sector manager for DIY and garden, offers his view as to how the situation is likely to affect the home improvement and garden industry.
A
s I write, global headlines are dominated by escalating conflict in the Middle East and what energy
market traders are describing as an ‘apocalypse now’ scenario centred around Iranian strikes on Quatar’s Ras Laffan liquified natural gas complex. UK natural gas prices are up 20%, and while speculation in national media about Britain’s energy security has been branded as ‘scaremongering’ by Government, Ministers are said to be braced for the impact of a potentially prolonged energy crisis.
That said, by the time you are
reading this, the situation may have eased. But equally, it may have deepened. We may have greater clarity – or we may not. And that is just the point. As with all geopolitical events, the situation is fluid. The one certainty we do have is that regardless of how this specific conflict plays out, global volatility is now a constant feature of doing business. And with that comes a clear message — resilience planning is more vital than ever.
Commercial effects tend to linger
Short-term disruption is something the DIY and garden sector has managed before – the bigger question is how prepared we are for a more prolonged period of instability. Already we are feeling economic pressures on energy and fuel costs, volatility in freight and insurance, renewed concern around inflation and interest rates and a consequent dip in consumer confidence. Early indicators suggest households are becoming more cautious, particularly around larger discretionary purchases – exactly where many DIY and garden categories sit. So far, it is a shift in behaviour, not a collapse in demand, but immediate impact is rarely the biggest issue. What really matters is how long uncertainty feeds through into costs, confidence, and customer behaviour. Even if the headlines move on quickly, the commercial effects can linger.
20 DIY WEEK MARCH 2026
Left: Steve Edwards, BHETA’s sector manager for DIY and garden
If energy prices remain elevated, or logistics costs continue to fluctuate, the impact will extend into cost of goods inflation, tighter retailer negotiations, more cautious stockholding, and increased price sensitivity.
How to improve resilience There are several priorities for DIY and garden businesses now. Demand forecasting needs to be
more dynamic – Understanding which categories are discretionary or seasonal is critical. Decorative housewares, outdoor leisure and larger project-led DIY ranges are typically more exposed.
Cost visibility is essential –
Freight, fuel and insurance are already volatile. Without frequent updates to landed cost, margin erosion can happen quietly. Inventory discipline matters – Seasonal garden stock and slower- moving discretionary lines carry
higher risk if demand softens at the wrong time.
Retailer dialogue is key – Changes in call-off, promotions and ranging can happen quickly. Early, transparent communication helps avoid surprises.
Turning risk into opportunity For DIY and garden business that can get to grips with these challenges, there may well be an upside to the volatility of the situation. Disruption also creates opportunity as retailers reassess ranges and prioritise strong value propositions, reliability of supply and operational flexibility. Many of the actions that reduce risk – tighter forecasting, cost control, and stronger customer alignment – also support commercial growth. In uncertain markets, reliability becomes a competitive advantage. Suppliers who can demonstrate control – of cost, supply, and service – are often the ones that end up gaining ground. Access to clear, practical insight is critical, and here’s where the information that BHETA provides to its members can really make a difference. BHETA offers: regular cost of goods reporting,
tracking movements in freight, materials, and input costs
guidance on risk management, contingency and disaster planning ongoing market intelligence and briefings
The BHETA team can really help businesses focus on what matters – understanding actual cost movements, planning for disruption, and making informed decisions rather than reacting to headlines. Despite the challenges, the UK DIY and garden market remains active and full of opportunity. Whether this conflict proves short-lived or more prolonged, the lesson is consistent: businesses that can absorb cost volatility, respond quickly to demand shifts, and maintain strong retail partnerships will be best placed to succeed.
About BHETA BHETA represents suppliers in the home improvement, garden, housewares, and small electricals sectors, providing members with insight, networking, and business development opportunities. For more information, contact BHETA Member Services on 0121 237 1130 or visit
www.bheta.co.uk.
www.diyweek.net
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