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Buildings need to plan beyond the Paris Agreement


It is expected that global warming will exceed the target limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels set by the Paris Agreement, potentially reaching over 2°C in the 2050s and continuing to rise over the next fi fty years. Tim Mitchell from Klima Therm discusses the urgent need to adapt to rising temperatures and the latest advanced heat pumps that off er all round climate control


A


t COP21 in Paris, 196 countries signed a landmark agreement to pursue eff orts to limit global warming to well below 2°C


above pre-industrial levels, and ideally to no more than 1.5°C. Ten years later, at COP30 which took place at the end of 2025 in Brazil, UN secretary general António Guterres said that exceeding that target is now inevitable. The hottest year since records began, 2024


was the fi rst to reach 1.5°C warmer than pre- industrial levels, generally considered to mean the late 19th century. While this does not mean that the Paris Agreement has been breached – it refers to a twenty-year average – the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has warned this year that buildings should not take 1.5°C as the baseline for climate adaptations.


In a letter to a DEFRA MP in October 2025, the CCC advised that buildings should prepare for a


minimum 2°C temperature rise by 2050, while advising that reaching 4°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 cannot yet be ruled out and should therefore be considered for new commercial buildings designed for long term use.


Prepare for overheating


With winters becoming milder and summers more intense, overheating has emerged as one of the most urgent risks facing property managers and building designers. Research by RHOSS and the Polytechnic University


of Turin has revealed an interesting paradox, where buildings that are designed to achieve high energy effi ciency by preventing heat loss are now struggling to keep heat out. Analysis across multiple European climates found that the relationship between insulation and overall annual energy effi ciency is not linear. There is an optimal insulation point, beyond which trapped internal heat will increase cooling demand, adversely impacting energy consumption. These fi ndings challenge conventional thinking and demand a more sophisticated approach to HVAC design, considering year-round performance and projected temperature rises, rather than focusing solely on considerations designed to limit the need for winter heating.


Choose an advanced heat pump


Polyvalent heat pumps combine multiple energy functions into a single compact unit, simultaneously generating heating and cooling while recovering energy from one process to support the other. This technology is particularly valuable in high-load buildings such as hospitals, hotels, universities and data centres, enabling buildings to respond fl exibly to increasingly variable climate conditions. For buildings without


constant dual demands, reversible heat pumps off er adaptable, year-round comfort from a single system that reverses the energy fl ow. Advances in variable- speed compressors, smart expansion valves and improved heat exchangers allow these systems to maintain stable supply temperatures even in extreme conditions, reducing plant complexity and energy consumption while lowering operational emissions. Many older HVAC systems depend on radiators or domestic hot water circuits designed around 70-80°C supply temperatures. High-temperature heat pumps allow buildings to take a phased approach to HVAC upgrades. The latest models reliably deliver hot water up to 80°C, making them highly compatible with legacy heating infrastructure.


Recover heat and keep air clean


Heat recovery is an important part of the picture, capturing thermal energy that would otherwise be wasted and reusing it within the building. By reclaiming up to 90% of thermal energy from exhaust air, buildings can reduce heating demand by 25–40%. The Energy-related Product (ErP) directive states


that all new Air Handling Units (AHUs) must include heat recovery as standard, pre-heating or pre-cooling incoming air and reducing the load on boilers and chillers. Some systems are off ered with integrated heat pumps for even greater effi ciency. AHUs are key for climate resilient buildings as


increased air tightness can inadvertently increase the circulation of indoor pollutants. Providing ventilation, air fi ltration and cooling is essential, particularly for buildings in inner-city locations.


Make a smart investment


We must learn from 2025’s extreme weather events. Adaptation to the changing climate must form the core of every design decision going forward, whether new build or retrofi t. With the Paris Agreement targets now certain to be exceeded, investment in energy-effi cient, future-proof HVAC systems will prepare our buildings for a future that will be warmer, wetter and far more unsettled than the climate for which they were originally designed.


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