From past predictions to future possibilities
F
ifteen years ago, on HVR’s 50th anniversary, three of today’s contributors offered their own forecasts for the future. And now to mark HVR’s 65th birthday, they look back on those earlier predictions—examining what they got right, what changed faster than expected, and what surprised them. With the benefit of hindsight and fresh insight, they reflect on how far the industry has come and what they now believe the future holds.
It won’t just be about AI David Frise
Woeful
Chief Executive, BESA
By the time HVR is celebrating its 75th birthday it will be reporting on a very different looking building services industry, writes David Frise, chief executive of the Building Engineering Services Association (BESA).
When I contributed to HVR’s 50th anniversary edition, I predicted we would be living in a highly digitally connected era by now with multiple options for controlling buildings remotely. That has largely come to pass, but construction and its myriad specialisms have not changed materially in the past two or three decades. We still deliver projects in a remarkably ‘traditional’ way and building sites look largely similar. There is still plenty of mud around and ‘actual’ people still welding and bricklaying – robots, long predicted, are still a novelty. However, the digital revolution is now accelerating – with AI leading the charge, so the next decade will be even more exciting (and potentially alarming!).
AI has been embedded in many of our processes for some time, of course, but it is still really just getting started. Current models are not that ‘smart’ but they just do things a lot more quickly than us. However, by 2030 we are likely to see the unveiling of Artificial General Intelligence’ (AGI) which can mimic human intelligence too. From then on, it is fast forward towards SuperAI and then the ‘singularity’ first mooted in science fiction films when AI starts to build better versions of itself – and all bets are off. This makes confident predictions about what happens next fraught with difficulty. AI as a technology still has so many grey areas and the risks are clear and widely debated. The chances of a financial implosion are also high for many AI companies.
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www.heatingandventilating.net
However, we can be relatively confident that future AI models will help us get to grips with our woeful productivity thanks to the growth in innovations like generative design tools. These automatically create and test thousands of design iterations leading to better cost analysis, material use, energy efficiency, embodied carbon and long-term sustainability.
We should also see a 20 to 30% reduction in project costs, 30 to 50% faster delivery times, a major reduction in on-site safety incidents, and equally significant improvements in carbon footprint thanks to more accurate analysis of materials and design.
Procurement will be turned on its head, so ending the repeated bun fighting over price variations and scheduling as AI systems will be able to design and re-design at speed and take account of project delays based on weather data, supply chain issues, and workforce availability. Its automated re-scheduling engines will adjust plans dynamically and alert managers in real-time. Then we get to AI-controlled robots that can handle repetitive or dangerous tasks. And we will see the real benefits of BIM and 3D printing with workflows rapidly adjusted to match – freeing up our best people to be more creative and imaginative in what they design.
There is a lot more on the technical side to come, but arguably more importantly will be the impact this has on our people and on the quality, safety and appearance of the built environment. The most profound change to our industry is already underway prompted by the Building Safety Act and, at BESA, as well as producing advice and guidance to help our sector cope with the enormous scale of this change, we are also encouraging firms across our sector to embed competence and compliance in their business processes via our new Member Pledge.
This is not about technology (alone) but about changing human aspiration and behaviours to reflect the kind of buildings we need to support social mobility, health and wellbeing. The marriage of AI driven technical development to human aspiration to do and be better is the key to this profound time of change. So, what we now consider to be a radical change to the industry’s ‘culture’ will simply be the ‘norm’ for future generations who will also feel happier and better motivated about what they do for a living.
The children who started secondary school this year, destined to become our engineers and designers of the future, will be entirely comfortable having AI as their workmate. On the downside, their lack of ‘real world’ experience could impair their ability to recognise whether solutions being suggested by AI make sense.
This will need to be carefully handled by employers and trainers, but having AI on board should free them up to be more imaginative, creative and, hopefully, happier and more motivated in their work.
HVR 65th Anniversary Supplement
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