FOCUS | MEXICO
Make the most of this moment
With a new political regime full of vision and vigour, Mexico’s unpredictable and increasingly isolationist neighbour to the north is making ripples in the waters of international trade. Jim Banks looks at the factors that shaping the economy in the years to come.
M
exico is a culturally vibrant and industrially diverse economy that has a sporadic history of economic
development. Growth comes in fits and starts, but this large, diversified and relatively strong economy has many reasons to be positive, though the current volatility on the global geopolitical stage means nothing can be taken for granted. Home to 130 million people, Mexico is
currently the world’s 13th largest economy, and it relies on exports of machinery and transport equipment, steel, electrical equipment, chemicals, food products, petroleum and petroleum products to bolster the growth of its GDP. Currently, around 80% of Mexico's
14 Summer 2025 |
ochmagazine.com
petroleum is exported to its northern neighbour, the US, which relies heavily on Mexican oil to fuel its economic activity. Relations between the US and Mexico have not always been easy. In Donald Trump’s first term as president, one of the major bones of contention was the US’s plan to build a border wall, with Mexico footing the bill. Building a “big, beautiful wall” to prevent illegal immigrants travelling to the US was the signature promise of Trump's 2016 election campaign, understandably fuelling tension between the two countries. Though it remains to be seen precisely what will happen to the wall now that Trump has taken office for a second time, partly because the
focus has been on trade tariffs and government efficiency measures, the potential for a further souring of relations looms on the horizon. With its prosperous oil sector, growing exports
and strong prospects for growth in agriculture, mining, tourism and industrial activity, Mexico will have to play out a careful but bold strategy to make the best of its opportunities on the international stage. Already, there are signs that economic growth is slowing. According to Deloitte, over the first three quarters of 2024, GDP grew by an average of 1.5% year-on-year. In the same periods in 2023, average growth was 3.6%, and 3.4% in 2022, which is a sign of a clear slowdown.
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