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Global CO2 emissions ‘will continue to rise until 2050’
Worldwide Emissions abatement The US Energy Information Administration
projects that global energy-related CO2 emissions from consumption of coal, liquid fuels, and natural gas will increase over the next 30 years across most of the cases it analysed in its ‘International Energy Outlook 2023’ (IEO2023).
By 2050, energy-related CO2 emissions vary
between a 2% decrease and a 34% increase compared with 2022 in all cases the EIA modelled. Growing populations and incomes increase fossil fuel consumption and emissions, particularly in the industrial and electric power sectors. These trends offset emissions reductions from improved energy efficiency, lower carbon intensity of fuel mix, and growth in non-fossil fuel energy. IEO2023 analyses long-term world energy markets in 16 regions through 2050. The EIA studied seven cases that explore differing assumptions of economic growth, crude oil prices, and technology costs. These cases consider only the international laws and regulations adopted through to March 2023 and rely on the US projections published in its ‘Annual Energy Outlook 2023’ (AEO2023), which assumed US laws and regulations as of November 2022.
Coal
Across sectors, the highest growth in global coal consumption through to 2050 occurs in the electric power sector. Although zero- carbon technologies account for the most growth in electricity capacity and generation, EIA expects coal-fired generators to continue to operate. Across all cases, China and India account for about two-thirds of the world’s coal consumption between 2022 and 2050. Although China is currently the largest coal consumer, EIA projects its coal consumption to decline by 18% between 2022 and 2050. Coal consumption in India nearly doubles over the same projection period.
Liquid fuels
EIA projects global consumption of liquid fuels, which include gasoline, diesel, and biofuels, will increase through to 2050. Across all sectors, the largest share and the fastest growth in liquid fuels consumption is in industrial applications, such as chemical production. Increased liquid fuels consumption in the industrial sector is partially offset by declining liquid fuels consumption in the transportation sector as adoption of electric vehicles (EV) grows. Regionally, EIA projects the United States, China, and Western Europe to remain the top liquid
fuels consumers, even though fuel consumption in these regions either declines or flattens out by the mid-2030s owing to government policies and growing EV adoption. India has the fastest projected growth in liquid fuels consumption, more than doubling across all cases.
Natural gas
EIA projects that natural gas consumption will increase in the electric power and industrial sectors through to 2050. In the cases it modelled, the electric power sector continues to rely on existing natural gas-fired plants despite growth in zero-carbon electricity generation. In the industrial sector, increased production of basic chemicals in countries such as the United States propels an increase in natural gas consumption, both as fuel and petrochemical feedstock. Natural gas demand also grows in the Middle East because of the fuel’s role in producing and processing natural gas and oil for export. The United States is projected to remain the world’s top natural gas consumer throughout the projection horizon, but the Middle East shows significant growth during that time frame and approaches US consumption by 2050, ranging from a 29% to 54% growth rate from 2022 to 2050 in the IEO2023 cases.
Oil and gas producers ‘are being confronted with profound choices’ – IEA
Worldwide Energy transition Oil and gas producers face pivotal choices about their role in the global energy system amid a worsening climate crisis fuelled in large part by their core products, according to a major new special report from the International Energy Agency.
The IEA report, ‘The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions’, finds that the oil and gas sector – which provides more than half of global energy supply and employs nearly 12 million workers worldwide – has been a marginal force, at best, in transitioning to an energy system with net zero emissions, accounting for just 1% of clean energy investment globally. The report shows how the industry can take a more responsible approach and contribute positively to the new energy economy. The UN’s COP28 climate summit in Dubai is “a moment of truth” for the oil and gas sector it says.
To start, all oil and gas companies should commit to tackling emissions from their own operations, according to the report. These emissions need to decline by 60% by 2030 to
align with the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Companies also need to dramatically change how they allocate their financial resources. In 2022, clean energy investments accounted for a mere 2.5% of the industry’s total capital spending. The report finds that producers looking to align with the aims of the Paris Agreement would need to put 50% of capital expenditures towards clean energy projects by 2030.
Business as usual ‘not good enough’ Further, companies must abandon the notion that they can continue with business as usual simply by ramping up the deployment of carbon capture technologies. The report finds that if oil and gas consumption were to evolve as projected under today’s policy settings, limiting warming to 1.5 °C would require an entirely inconceivable 32 billion tonnes of carbon capture by 2050, with annual investment rising from $4 billion last year to $3.5 trillion.
Opportunities lie ahead despite these challenges, however. Nearly a third of the
4 | November/December 2023 |
www.modernpowersystems.com
energy consumed in 2050 in a decarbonised energy system comes from technologies that could benefit from the oil and gas industry’s skills and resources, including hydrogen, offshore wind and liquid biofuels.
About the report
‘The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions’ analyses the implications and opportunities for the industry that would arise from stronger international efforts to reach energy and climate targets.
It also examines how transitions increase the likelihood of boom and bust cycles for oil and gas producer economies. It highlights strategies for producer economies that could complement broader reforms to build macroeconomic stability and the role of international partners to support this process. The report sets out a ‘fair and feasible way forward’ in which oil and gas companies and producer economies take a real stake in the clean energy economy while helping the world avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.
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