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Carbon emissions from fossil fuels will hit record high in 2022


Worldwide Climate change Carbon emissions emanating from fossil fuels will hit record levels this year, according to a comprehensive analysis presented at the UN COP27 Climate Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. Its findings represent a strong contrast to the declared need to reduce emissions by 50% by 2030 if global warming is to be restricted to 1.5C to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.


The analysis by the Global Carbon Project (GCP) shows that there is no sign that the necessary reduction is happening, the researchers said, heaping further pressure on the countries whose representatives are meeting at the climate summit to deliver rapid action.


The world’s nations are projected to emit roughly 36.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide by burning coal, natural gas and oil for energy, up 1 % from 2021 and slightly more than the previous record in 2019.


Scientists have warned that the world as a whole will need to stop adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by around mid-century to stabilise global temperatures and minimise the risks from heat waves, sea-level rise and ecosystem collapse.


A few states account for the majority of the world’s fossil fuel emissions, with China


responsible for 32 %, the USA 14 %, the EU 8 % and India 8 %. In Europe, emissions are expected to drop by about 0.8 % this year, largely driven by a steep fall in natural gas consumption after Russia cut off supplies. Some hope comes from assessment of emissions from the destruction of forests. These have been declining slowly over the last two decades, though largely because of more new trees being planted rather than fewer being felled.


When this decline is taken into account, global carbon emissions have been essentially flat since 2015. However, until emissions actually start falling, huge amounts of heat-trapping carbon dioxide are still being pumped into the atmosphere every year. The UN secretary general, António Guterres, has set out to world leaders at COP27 this week what this means: “We are in the fight of our lives and we are losing. Our planet is fast approaching tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible. We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator,” he said.


The analysis by GCP uses multiple streams of data from the year to date to estimate emissions for 2022. It found that the emissions figure of 36.6 bn tonnes is the highest ever. More burning of oil products is the biggest


contributor, mostly because of the continuing rebound of international aviation after the pandemic.


Continued emissions at this level would make 1.5C of global heating become more probable than not in the next decade, the researchers said. Reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050, as pledged by many countries, now requires an annual decrease comparable to the sharp fall in 2020 due to Covid-19 lockdowns.


Emissions from coal will return to the all-time high seen in 2014, but unlike in the past, this is not driven by China but by India and the European Union. The gas burn remained level, but at the same record level seen in 2021. Emissions from China, the world’s biggest polluter, will decrease by 1% in 2022, the GCP found, because of the country’s stringent Covid restrictions and a collapse in the construction industry. The EU will also see a similar decrease because the 7% rise in coal emissions has been offset by a 10% fall in CO2 from gas consumption after Russia invaded Ukraine. US emissions will rise by 1.5%, with a surge in flights largely to blame. India will have the largest rise, 6%. This is due to higher coal and oil emissions. India now emits more than the EU overall – although emissions per capita remain much lower.


California will build no new gas-fired generation


USA Emissions abatement In an update to its Scoping Plan the California Air Resources Board has laid out the policies and actions the state proposes to drastically cut its use of fossil fuels and achieve carbon neutrality by 2045 at the latest.


State governor Gavin Newsom praised the proposal. “[California’s] is the most ambitious set of climate goals of any jurisdiction in the world, and if adopted, it will spur an economic transformation akin to the industrial revolution,” he said in a statement following the plan’s release.


Under the proposals, by 2045 California


would: ● Reduce fossil fuel consumption to less than one-tenth of what is used today – a 94% reduction in demand;


● Cut greenhouse gas emissions by 85% compared to 1990 levels;


● Achieve a 71% reduction in particulate (ie smog-forming) air pollution.


The plan includes a commitment to build no


new gas-fired power plants and increased support for mass transit. It also calls for a multi-agency process to ensure that the transition away from oil extraction and refining is “equitable.” And it calls for the construction of 20 GW in offshore wind by 2045. The Board is scheduled to vote on the 2022 Update to the Scoping Plan at its December 15-16 meeting. The initial draft was considered by the Board at its June meeting and with the Environmental Justice Advisory Committee in September. The final proposed plan includes changes requested by the Board and the EJAC, as well as input from governor Gavin Newsom. It also reflects direction from new state laws passed by the Legislature earlier this year.


The final modelling for the Scoping Plan projects a 48% reduction of greenhouse gases below 1990 levels by 2030. That would surpass the state’s statutory mandate to reduce emissions 40% below 1990 levels by 2030.


6 | November/December 2022 | www.modernpowersystems.com


$1.1 billion grant to keep open Diablo Canyon NPP USA Nuclear power


The US Department of Energy is to conditionally provide Pacific Gas & Electric with a $1.1 billion grant to help prevent the closure of Diablo Canyon, California’s last nuclear power plant.


The funding comes from Civil Nuclear Credit (CNC) programme, a $6 billion fund aimed at supporting the continued operation of the USA’s nuclear plants. It allows reactor owners and operators to apply for and bid on credits to support their continued operations. It was included in the infrastructure bill signed into law in November 2021. PG&E applied for CNC funding in September 2022, the same day California’s governor Gavin Newsom signed into law legislation seeking to extend operations at Diablo Canyon for five years beyond its current licence expiration in 2025. The facility would be a bridging plant while renewable energy and other low carbon resources come online in California.


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