Update | IEA World Energy Outlook 2022 At the turning point?
The global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing profound and long-lasting changes that have the potential to hasten the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system, according to the latest edition of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook. For the first time, global demand for each of the fossil fuels shows a peak or plateau across all WEO scenarios, with Russian exports in particular falling significantly as the world energy order is reshaped
Above: Exacerbating already tight energy markets, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has tipped the world into a global energy crisis of unprecedented breadth and complexity, affecting all countries and the vulnerable in particular (source IEA)
Today’s energy crisis is delivering a shock of unprecedented breadth and complexity. The biggest tremors have been felt in the markets for natural gas, coal and electricity – with significant turmoil in oil markets as well, necessitating two oil stock releases of unparalleled scale by IEA member countries to avoid even more severe disruptions. With unrelenting geopolitical and economic concerns, energy markets remain extremely vulnerable, and the crisis is a reminder of the fragility and unsustainability of the current global energy system, the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2022 (WEO) warns.
The IEA says its WEO analysis finds scant evidence to support “claims from some quarters” that climate policies and net zero commitments contributed to the run- up in energy prices. In the most affected regions, higher shares of renewables were correlated with lower electricity prices – and more efficient homes and electrified heat have provided an important buffer for some consumers, albeit far from enough. The heaviest burden is falling on poorer households where a larger share of income is spent on energy.
Above: Electricity is turning the corner. As markets rebalance, the upside for coal is temporary as renewable generation rises by 90% to 2030; the peak in power sector emissions needs to be followed by a much steeper decline to be consistent with global climate goals. STEPS = Stated Policy Scenario (source IEA)
12 | November/December 2022|
www.modernpowersystems.com
Alongside short-term measures to try to shield consumers from the impacts of the crisis, many governments are now taking longer-term steps. Some are seeking to increase or diversify oil and gas supplies, and
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