People in power | Mary Quaney, Mainstream
ability to achieve economy of scale, but Quaney thinks that is only the case at large scale. “I think it would not make sense for every country to have a very large-scale manufacturing facility… but there is an enormous potential for the supply chain to be independent of where those very large manufacturing facilities are. “In all markets there is a very significant role for local supply chain to transition skills that are there – for example in the oil and gas sector. I don’t see any reason why every country shouldn’t be making sure that as much of that job creation as possible is local.”
Too far down the curve? Offshore wind in particular has moved very rapidly down the cost curve. Quaney has watched the fall keenly: “one of the factors that really fascinated me about joining the industry in the first place was this potential for renewable energy to become cost competitive. It has no fuel costs and quite low operation costs in the long term, so the real cost is in the capital expenditure and the development side.” But that cost reduction has come at the same time as technological innovation has meant new, bigger machines coming out, and she says, “I think that needs to level off. We are at very large scale, particularly on the offshore wind side. We are at very large scale for onshore machines too.” She suggests the supply chain, “now focuses on the industrialisation and commercialisation of those machines at scale and increased manufacturing facilities and capacity within the supply chain.”
However, fundamentally she lays the blame for the turbine makers’ problems on the outcomes of offshore wind auctions. ‘Reverse auctions’ for projects have resulted in extremely low per-MWh prices (the UK’s most recent Contracts for Difference auction settled at £37.5/MWh for two offshore wind projects). Sites have become more expensive, with auctions to secure seabed leases resulting in large upfront payments being required from developers.
Quaney says, “The way I would describe it in the last couple of years is that it has reached an unsustainable level and that needs to be addressed.
“It doesn’t mean that renewable energy is going to become dramatically more expensive overnight, but it needs to be at a healthy level that is sustainable for the growth of the industry. If you look at the cost of energy and at the price we are paying now for not having renewable energy on the grid and being extremely dependent on gas imports, all the economics are there, in terms of there being a healthier price for renewable energy that would still be completely cost competitive against other forms of energy.” That sounds a warning for floating wind. “There are very significant amounts of capital right across the world being invested in development cycles for floating offshore wind and the investment appetite is there”, Quaney says. She thinks that, as with fixed wind, the cost curve will shift downwards dramatically but there has to be industrialisation and she hopes “lessons will be learned in terms of that race to the bottom.” Instead, floating wind needs to “land at a level that is cost competitive to allow for large-scale buildout.”
She adds, “I think governments need to recognise that there needs to be a healthy price paid for renewable energy, because we are not competing on a level playing field at the moment.”
Left and below: LiDAR wind mapping unit for the Mainstream/AIT 500 MW Ben Tre offshore wind farm, Vietnam, which is aiming for operation in 2026. It is one of three Mainstream renewable projects currently in development with local partners across Vietnam, the other two being a 405 MW portfolio of solar PV in the Dak Nong province of central Vietnam and the 1400 MW Phu Cuong Soc Trang offshore wind farm
14 | October 2022|
www.modernpowersystems.com
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55
