| Powering Australia
The Integrated System Plan (ISP) is the result of two years of consultation, analysis and review involving 2100 stakeholders, 85 presentations and reports, and the consideration of 220 formal submissions.
AEMO says the ISP confirms that renewable energy connected with transmission and distribution, firmed with storage, and backed up by gas-powered generation is the lowest-cost way to supply electricity to homes and businesses as Australia transitions to a net zero economy. Urgency to renew the National Energy Market is being driven by the progressive closure of Australia’s remaining coal-fired power stations. Ten large coal-fired power stations have closed since Munmorah ceased operation in 2012, the latest being Liddell in April 2023. The ISP projects that 90% of today’s capacity will be closed by 2035 and all before 2040.
Network projects included in the 2024 ISP optimal development path. Source AEMO
The centrepiece of the plan is the “optimal development path” (ODP) — a mix of replacement grid-scale generation, storage, and transmission, with an annualised capital cost of $122 billion to 2050.* The ODP is said to be the least cost path to meet federal and state government energy policies on emissions reductions.
“The ISP is a roadmap to navigate Australia’s power system through the energy transition, providing Australians with reliable electricity at the lowest cost,” said AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman. The key messages of the new plan are consistent with previous editions, which AEMO produces every two years under Australian energy laws.
Those laws also set out what AEMO must address in the ISP. That includes government policies and targets. Interestingly the ISP does not model nuclear power as it is not government policy and in fact is not permitted by Australia’s current laws.
According to Westerman, “Australia’s energy transition is well underway”, with renewable energy accounting for 40% of electricity used in the past year.
Consistent with previous reports, the plan identifies almost 10 000 km of new transmission lines that are required by 2050 to connect new sources of generation and meet reliability targets at the lowest cost to consumers.
Ten transmission projects, or 2500 km, are already underway, and the new ISP identifies a further seven projects that should now progress through planning and delivery.
AEMO says it recognises the clear need for early community engagement and effective consultation on these projects.
The transmission projects will cost about $16 billion but are expected to recoup their investment costs and, additionally, save consumers $18.5 billion in avoided energy costs
*This $122 billion value includes transmission augmentation, utility-scale generation and storage capex, and does not include the cost of commissioned, committed or anticipated projects, consumer energy resources, distribution network upgrades.
www.modernpowersystems.com | July/August 2024 | 11
Coal installed capacity projections for Australia National Electricity Market, 2009-2050, for three scenarios, 2024 ISP. ‘Step change’ considered most likely. Source AEMO
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61
