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‘We need no new fossil projects’ – new research


UK Climate change


Researchers at University College London and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) have co-authored a paper in the academic journal Science, entitled ‘No New Fossil Fuel Projects: The Norm We Need.’ It is said to be the first peer-reviewed article to show that there is no need for new fossil fuel projects in the attempt to meet the 1.5°C global warming limit.


Despite agreement at the UN Conference COP 28 in late 2023, that transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems was necessary in order to reach net zero targets by 2050, oil and gas producers continue to expand exploration and drill for resources, and are being supported by governments. In fact the Australian government recently released a strategy outlining how the country will ramp up production and use of gas until ‘2050 and beyond’.


According to IISD figures, governments expect to produce collectively 29% more oil


and 82% more gas by 2030 than is consistent with a 1.5°C global warming pathway. By 2050, the gap widens to 260% for oil and 210% for gas. In contrast, the new study carried out by IISD in collaboration with UCL researchers has found that existing fossil fuel projects are sufficient to meet anticipated global energy demands in the transition period to net zero. The study analysed the projected future global demand for oil and gas production, as well as coal- and gas-fired power generation, using a range of scenarios that limit global heating to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The researchers concluded that new coal, oil and gas projects are not needed in the transition period to net zero by 2050, with clean energy production projects ramping up. This being so, they call on governments to stop issuing new oil, gas and coal licences. They contend that establishing a “no new fossil fuels” policy would be less costly, face fewer legal hurdles, and be politically easier than trying to phase out existing capacity early. This would


Significant measures to support new NPPs in USA USA Nuclear power


The White House has announced significant new steps to support new nuclear power plants in the USA as the Biden administration targets a carbon-free power sector by 2035. A primary goal is to reduce project risks associated with large nuclear builds. The White House has announced the creation of a ‘Power Project Management and Delivery working group’ made up of experts that would help identify opportunities to proactively mitigate sources of cost and schedule overrun risk. Cost and schedule overruns are a major hurdle for new nuclear projects. Plant Vogtle Units 3 and 4 in Georgia were the first nuclear reactors built in the USA in more than 30 years. The effort, led by Georgia Power, cost billions more and took years longer than originally projected.


Working group members would be made up of federal government entities, including from White House and the Department of Energy (DOE). The group would also include a range of stakeholders, including project developers, engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) firms, utilities, investors, labour organisations, academics, and NGOs. The US Army has also announced that it would soon release a Request for Information to inform a deployment programme for advanced reactors that


4 | June 2024 | www.modernpowersystems.com


also help to build a global norm against new fossil fuel projects.


Ambitious scaling of renewables “Our research establishes that there is a rigorous scientific basis for the proposed norm by showing that there is no need for new fossil fuel projects,” said Steve Pye of the UCL Energy Institute, a co-author of the study. “The clarity that this norm brings should help focus policy on targeting the required ambitious scaling of renewable and clean energy investment, whilst managing the decline of fossil fuel infrastructure in an equitable and just way.”


Greg Muttitt, senior associate at the IISD and study co-author, said: “Our research draws on a large range of scientific evidence, including climate scenarios from the IPCC


(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), but its message to governments and fossil fuel companies is very simple: There is no room for new fossil fuel projects in a 1.5°C-aligned world.”


would power multiple Army sites. Small modular reactors (SMRs) and micro-reactors could provide defence installations resilient energy for several years amid the threat of physical or cyber-attacks, extreme weather, pandemic biothreats, and other emerging challenges, the White House said.


Nuclear lifeline


Recent policy has thrown large, conventional reactors a lifeline. For example, the Diablo Canyon plant in California is leveraging DOE’s Civil Nuclear Credit programme to fund the plant’s life extension. In Michigan, the Palisades plant would be the first U.S. nuclear facility to restart after shutting down. Holtec plans to reopen Palisades and is supported by a $1.5 billion conditional loan commitment from DOE. And a production tax credit from the Inflation Reduction Act offers existing nuclear plants support to continue operating. There are also more than three dozen working designs for small modular reactors and micro-reactors, some of which have goals to be commercially operable by 2030. Proponents say these smaller advanced reactors offer cheaper and faster build times. However, this promise has yet to be fully tested.


Nuclear power represented 19% of the total electricity produced in the USA in 2023.


EU election result may hurt climate aims


Germany Climate policy Voters in Germany have abandoned the parties of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government at the European elections, handing the conservative CDU/CSU alliance of European Commission leader Ursula von der Leyen a clear lead, reports online news agency Clean Energy Wire. The vote also brought an unprecedented result for the far-right AfD, which came out as the second strongest party. The populist group even emerged as the strongest party in the country’s East, where a string of three state elections looks set to keep tensions in the three-way coalition high amid constant campaigning and difficult budget talks for 2025. The leaders of the Greens and of Scholz’s SPD had already conceded that the government needed to take a critical look at itself – citing the country’s ill-designed heating law as an example of how not to do climate action if you aim to keep people on board. German businesses, researchers and civil society have welcomed that democratic and pro-EU parties continue to have a large majority after the 2024 EU elections, but warned that wins for the populist and far-right parties mean that it would become more difficult to introduce ambitious climate and energy transition policy in the future.


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