| Piston power
Visualisation of hybrid power plant, PV plus piston engines. (Image: Wärtsilä)
transitional projects. A growing chorus argues that gas should form part of Africa’s just energy transition, provided it is integrated into national climate plans and structured to de-risk the shift to cleaner power. The most useful money crowds in private capital to systems, not stand-alone assets. The priority is hybrids that cut diesel use immediately and accelerate renewables later.
Why the bump is acceptable Two points matter for the climate ledger. First, Africa’s historical contribution to greenhouse gases is tiny. Sub-Saharan Africa excluding South Africa has emitted well under 1% of cumulative CO2
since the industrial revolution;
including South Africa the region is still under 2%. Second, the opportunity cost of delay is enormous. Energy-starved economies grow slower, which makes the clean transition harder to finance. A modest, time-boxed rise to something like a 5% share of global CO2 as grids stabilise would still leave Africa’s burden small by world standards, especially if the uptick displaces diesel and comes with a dated plan to fall.
Risks, spelled out and mitigated The obvious risk is lock-in: today’s bridge becomes tomorrow’s motorway. That is why the contract matters. Write conversion deadlines and decommissioning triggers into PPAs. Require modular plants whose value survives a fuel switch. Publish transparent emissions dashboards. Include stop-loss clauses if milestones slip. Another risk is cheap-today myopia, choosing the lowest upfront tariff and ignoring reliability, ramping and integration costs. The remedy is to procure systems and judge bids on whole-system cost and carbon, not just cents per kWh.
One final objection is to wait for cheaper batteries. Storage costs are falling and Africa should adopt them early. But telling a low- income country to wait five years for round-
80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%
Ghana (2023)
Kenya (2018)
South Africa (2010)
Rwanda (2023)
Percentage of firms owning or sharing a generator. Sources: World Bank and IFC
the-clock electrons is not climate policy; it is development deferred. High costs of capital already hobble clean energy projects. Suppressing growth makes those costs worse. Better to grow with discipline, shrink diesel immediately, and use rising demand to make gas and storage bankable, then retire the fossils on schedule.
The ask
For energy ministries and regulators: publish peak-and-pivot plans that show when emissions will crest and what will force them down. Bake overdraft covenants into every firm-power tender. Allow dual-fuel where necessary, but mandate gas-ready design, switch-by dates and emissions-intensity floors. For development financiers and multilaterals: fund hybrids and grids, not single-fuel bets. Reward early conversion and managed retirement. Deploy guarantees to cut the cost of capital for storage and transmission. For developers and independent power producers: bid least-carbon firm power, not cheap today and stuck tomorrow. Africa does not seek permission to pollute. It seeks permission to end energy poverty
quickly while peaking emissions early. That is the lean-carbon bargain: a small, declining hump instead of a long, dirty plateau, and a faster route to the sunny side of the Kuznets curve. The task for partners is to help keep the overdraft small, and to pay it back fast.
*Born in South Africa, with over two decades of experience in infrastructure development across Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and Asia, Louis Strydom leads initiatives covering the full development cycle — from strategy and with a focus on accelerating the energy transition and driving long-term value. Louis holds multiple master’s degrees from leading universities in intelligence. He also serves on several boards, representing Wärtsilä’s strategic interests.
**The Kuznets curve is a theory attributed to economist Simon Kuznets suggesting income (moving from agriculture to higher-wage industry) and then falls as development matures.
www.modernpowersystems.com | January/February 2026 | 17
Sub-Saharan Africa
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