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Opinion: lean carbon, a middle way for Africa
Why a small, temporary rise in African carbon emissions is justified to reach the continent’s urgent electrification needs
Louis Strydom Director of Growth and Development for Africa and Europe at Wärtsilä Energy*
Africa holds 17% of the world’s people yet produces roughly 4% of global CO2
. On a
per-capita basis it emits about one tonne a year, the lowest of any continent. Africa also contains the world’s largest pocket of energy poverty. The question that matters is not whether to cut carbon, but how much temporary pollution is tolerable on the way to energy prosperity, and under what constraints.
An old question, a sharper answer Orthodoxy has split into two camps. One says “no fossils, ever”, a moral stance that collides with fragile grids and frequent blackouts. The other says “gas or nothing”, tidier for funders, but often impossible where gas infrastructure does not exist.
A better course is “lean carbon”: a minimal, time-limited overdraft of emissions to buy dependable power now, with covenants that force an early peak and a rapid decline. Think of it as carbon on credit, a capped facility, not a blank cheque.
An old curve, a new context The Environmental Kuznets Curve** describes an upside-down U. Pollution rises at low incomes, then peaks and falls as countries grow richer and regulate more. Africa can peak lower and earlier than historic industrialisers because renewables are cheaper, technology has improved and coal can be avoided. The policy aim is to flatten the hump: accept a small bump now to reach the downhill sooner.
Reality, not dogma
Today’s counterfactual (ie, what is not happening) is a continent powered neatly by wind and sun. The reality is millions of diesel generators humming in courtyards and factories because the grid is unreliable. Studies suggest self-generation already equals about 6% of installed capacity in sub-Saharan Africa, at a punishing 0.30 to 0.70 dollars per kWh, several times typical grid tariffs. When utilities falter, governments lease emergency diesel in bulk. In some cases these contracts have cost 3 to 4% of GDP. A paragraph on clean energyt in a strategy does not change the physics of a failing system. Intermittent renewables alone cannot yet stabilise a weak grid at scale. They need firm capacity, storage, or both. The sensible choice is planned, efficient firm power that
20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Africa’s share of global population (2024)
A small slice of CO2 Africa’s cumulative energy-related CO2
Africa’s share of global CO2 from fuel combustion (2022)
, a large share of people. emissions to date are <3% of the global total. Sources: United Nations (World Population Prospects 2024), IEA Africa (2022)
complements solar and wind, rather than the messy reality of unplanned, dirtier backup.
The gas-only headache If fossil molecules must feature, natural gas is preferable to oil products: fewer local pollutants and roughly half the CO2
of coal
per kWh. But gas-only is a mirage in much of Africa because pipes and LNG are scarce and markets are small. Outside a few corridors, there are only a handful of regional gas arteries, notably the West African Gas Pipeline from Nigeria to Ghana and the line from Mozambique to South Africa. Grand schemes to extend them have moved slowly. Most countries lack the demand density to finance pipelines or import terminals. Insisting on gas everywhere, now, often means no power at all. Policymakers have improvised. Ghana plugged supply gaps with a floating powership that initially burned heavy fuel oil, then switched to domestic gas once supplies and connections were ready. Senegal has commissioned heavy- fuel-oil-capable plants built to convert to gas when new fields and pipes arrive. These are bridges engineered to shorten the dirty phase, not invitations to lock-in.
What a workable plan looks like A credible lean-carbon pathway is neither all- renewables tomorrow nor gas for ever. It has three moving parts: 1. Power plants that can switch fuels New power stations should be able to start running right away — using heavy fuel oil or diesel if needed — but be built so
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they can easily switch to natural gas when supplies become available. This avoids blackouts today without locking countries into oil and gas for decades. Modern reciprocating engines can start and stop quickly, making them ideal substitutes for solar and wind power when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing.
2. Fossil fuel use that drops over time Fossil fuels should be relied upon only when necessary, shifting focus to using them for system stability and renewable- scarce periods. If they are the only means of electricity generation, we should systematically seek to decarbonise them. That way, emissions per unit of GDP fall fast, even before absolute emissions peak. The first target is to displace diesel generators, the dirtiest and costliest kilowatt-hours on the continent. 3. Covenants that bind
To make sure the “carbon overdraft” stays small and temporary, it needs hard limits. These include deadlines for switching to cleaner fuels, limits on total emissions, and power purchase agreements that reduce payments to conventional plants as renewables and storage grow. The focus should be on financing the whole energy system – renewables, backup power, and better transmission lines – not just individual plants.
Funders are shifting, cautiously Development financiers are moving from blanket bans to conditional support for
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