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World coal consumption reached a new high in 2022
Worldwide Coal
Global coal demand increased only marginally in 2022 but enough to push it to an all-time high amid the energy crisis, according to a new International Energy Agency report, which forecasts that the world’s coal consumption will remain at similar levels in the following years in the absence of stronger efforts to accelerate the transition to clean energy. Increase in coal use in Europe is expected to be temporary, with demand falling in advanced economies in the coming years but remaining robust in emerging Asian economies.
Global coal use is set to rise by 1.2% in 2022, exceeding 8 billion tonnes in a single year for the first time and eclipsing the previous record set in 2013, according to ‘Coal 2022’, the IEA’s latest annual market report on the sector. Based on current market trends, the report forecasts that coal consumption will then remain flat at that level through 2025 as declines in mature markets are offset by continued robust demand in emerging Asian economies. This means coal will continue to be the global energy system’s largest single source of carbon dioxide emissions by far.
Expected coal demand in 2022 is very close to the IEA forecast published a year ago in its report ‘Coal 2021’, even though coal markets have been shaken by a range of conflicting forces since then. Higher natural gas prices amid the global energy crisis have led to increased reliance on coal for generating
power, but slowing economic growth has at the same time reduced electricity demand and industrial output – and power generation from renewables has risen to a new record. In China, the world’s largest coal consumer, a heat wave and drought pushed up coal power generation during the summer, even as strict Covid-19 restrictions slowed down demand.
“The world is close to a peak in fossil fuel use, with coal set to be the first to decline, but we are not there yet,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of Energy Markets and Security. “Coal demand is stubborn and will likely reach an all-time high this year, pushing up global emissions. At the same time, there are many signs that today’s crisis is accelerating the deployment of renewables, energy efficiency and heat pumps – and this will moderate coal demand in the coming years. Government policies will be key to ensuring a secure and sustainable path forward.”
The international coal market remained tight in 2022, with coal demand for power generation set to hit a new record. Coal prices rose to unprecedented levels in March and then again in June, pushed higher by the strains caused by the global energy crisis, especially the spikes in natural gas prices, as well as adverse weather conditions in Australia, a key international supplier. Europe, which has been heavily impacted by Russia’s sharp reductions of natural gas flows, is on course to increase its coal consumption for
the second year in a row. However, by 2025, European coal demand is expected to decline below 2020 levels.
Emerging patterns
The world’s three largest coal producers – China, India and Indonesia – will all show production records in 2022. However, the report notes that despite high prices and comfortable margins for coal producers, there is no sign of surging investment in export-driven coal projects. This reflects caution among investors and mining companies about the medium- and longer-term prospects for coal.
Coal demand is forecast to fall in advanced economies in the coming years as renewables increasingly displace it for electricity generation. However, emerging and developing economies in Asia are set to increase coal use to help power their economic growth, even as they add more renewables. Developments in China, the world’s largest coal consumer, will have the biggest impact on global coal demand in the coming years, but India will also be significant.
The IEA’s special report ‘Coal in Net Zero Transitions’, published on 15 November, provides what is said to be the most comprehensive analysis to date of what it would take to bring down global coal emissions rapidly enough to meet international climate goals while supporting energy security and economic growth and addressing the social and employment consequences of the changes involved.
‘Vibrations’ delay start up of Vogtle 3 NPP
USA Nuclear power Georgia Power has delayed the start up of Vogtle unit 3 after detecting vibrations related to cooling system pipework, the company said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Vogtle 3 and 4 are currently the only nuclear units under construction in the USA. The vibrations occurred during start-up and pre-operational testing,
as reported by Georgia Power, a Southern Company subsidiary. Georgia Power now says the 1100 MW Westinghouse AP1000 unit is expected to reach initial criticality during February, and to be in service by April, a delay of at least three months compared to the company’s previous projection. The delay is expected to raise capital costs by $15 million per month, the company said. Georgia Power warned of possible additional schedule delays or cost increases. It cited required engineering changes or remediation related to plant systems, structures or components based on new technology that only recently began initial operation in the global nuclear industry at scale. “The ultimate outcome of these matters cannot be determined
at this time,” it said. Updates will be provided during Southern Company’s earnings call in February.
Construction of Vogtle 3 began in March 2013 and unit 4 in
November of that year. Southern Nuclear and Georgia Power took over managing the construction project in 2017 following Westinghouse’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission authorised Southern Nuclear Operating to load fuel and start operation at Vogtle Unit 3 in August 2022.
6 | January/February 2023 |
www.modernpowersystems.com
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