Spotlight |


during spring and summer months, and then distributing this water throughout the year until the cycle repeats. But this hydrologic cycle is being significantly disrupted. As the atmosphere warms the snowpack in the


Western US is rapidly declining. The nearby figure, generated and published by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), shows the reduction in the length of the snowpack season (measured in days) of the Western US states from 1955 to 2021. In the most significant areas, the snowpack season has reduced by over 40 days. This reduction has severely stressed the water


Snowpack season length change (days):


<-40 -30 to


-40


-20 to


-30


-10 to


-20 -10 to 0


to 10


0


10 to 20


20 to 30


30 to 40


>-40


Above: Figure 4 – Snowpack season


capture and distribution systems in the Western US. These systems were designed to capture snowmelt slowly over several months, but precipitable water is now beginning fall in the form of large rain events instead of snow. The water capture and distribution systems in the Western US, like many others throughout the world, will most likely have to be altered to adapt to these shifting hydrologic conditions to continue to operate effectively.


Aging infrastructure The average age of a dam throughout the world is 60


Below: Figure 5 – North America: number of dams built annually vs. engineering firm revenues


Bottom: Figire 6 – Need for hydro dams: renewable electricity demand


4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0


1800 1850 1900 1950 50 years 2000


years. The post-World War II building boom included a massive investment in dams and reservoirs to support the rapidly increasing population that was occurring. In the US, the dam construction boom peaked in the 1980s, when restrictive environmental permitting laws began to be implemented, and has been steadily declining ever since. Because of the immense cost and impact of dams, combined with difficulties in approvals for these projects, the use of existing reservoirs is being stretched to their maximum extent, but this lifecycle extension requires significant and ongoing maintenance and repair.


The nearby figure shows the number of dams built in the US since 1800 and compares this to dam and reservoir engineering revenues. At about 50 years after construction, the engineering effort on dams increases sharply. This is due to a range of factors, but the largest of these is age. The majority of dams were designed and constructed to 60-year-old standards and technology, many of which don’t exist today or are significantly outdated. The 60-year average age of US dams correlates to the number of failures. Since 2008, the US Association of State Dam Safety Officials has documented an average of 20 dam failures and 50 dam safety incidents each year, where dramatic intervention prevented failures. Significant failures of aging dams continue to occur throughout the world, with several and recent and dramatic examples in the US, Libya, Norway, Sudan, Kenya and elsewhere.


Increased interest in renewable energy Renewable energy sources are becoming increasingly


vital to the global energy landscape. Hydropower, one of the oldest, most reliable and most efficient forms of renewable energy, continues to play a crucial role. The development of new hydropower, and the ongoing maintenance of existing assets, will continue to grow in future years. This includes the dams that create the reservoirs that power the turbines. In 2022, the University of Michigan’s Center for Sustainable Systems estimated the demand for renewable sources of electricity would increase by over 250% over the next 25 years, which is shown in this graphic. The International Energy Agency estimates that


hydropower energy generates about 4,300 Terawatt hours (TWh) of energy each year, and if this were to increase as predicted, we would need to add nearly 6,500 TWh of new hydropower generation throughout the world.


The future of the dams and hydropower


32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0


Historic Projected 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


University of Michigan Center for Sustainable Systems 1 Quad = 1 Quadrillion Btu’s


market Even with extensive data and other relevant information, predicting the future with a high degree of accuracy is never assured – and any predictions should always come with caution. However, if current trends continue and are supported by the discussed market drivers, the recent and impressive growth of the dams, reservoirs and hydropower markets should similarly continue to increase. The data from the US appears to be a barometer of the overall market worldwide. If the average annual growth rate of 12% that has been experienced since 2004 continues, it may drive an unsustainable shortage of experts who work on these complex and challenging projects. With this in mind, it is important to raise awareness of the future professional resources that are needed to ensure our dams, reservoirs and hydropower assets remain in place for the communities they serve. Investing in our water infrastructure is crucial for ensuring sustainability. By prioritizing the maintenance and expansion of dams, reservoirs and hydropower assets, we can support communities and industries that rely on these fundamental, imperative resources. This strategic investment will help secure water supply, enhance energy production and contribute to a more prosperous and stable future.


14 | November 2024 | www.waterpowermagazine.com


Renewable Energy Consumption (Quads)


Number


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