| Spotlight
Left: Flooding on the Nile River in Khartoum, Sudan during 2021. Water resources of the Nile River are highly variable
assessing water and economy interventions in an integrated way.” Currently, Basheer states, there is disagreement and
contention over GERD between the affected countries of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. Negotiations have been ongoing for more than ten years. There is still no agreement.
“Cooperation on transboundary rivers is not a binary decision but rather a continuum that can take place in different forms ranging between dispute and integration. Cooperation often develops in small steps over long time periods to ensure mutual trust and political commitment. Although the GERD is a hydroelectric project that does not consume water apart from reservoir evaporation and seepage losses (around 3.6 % of the annual flow of the Blue Nile on average), the negotiations on the initial filling and long-term operation of the dam are progressively becoming about Nile water allocation/sharing. The Nile water allocation issue has been outstanding for several decades and attempting to address this issue within the GERD negotiations will make an agreement harder to achieve,” the authors say.
Complex situation River flow is complex process. Many rivers around the
world are highly variable and analysis shows that this variability has an impact on the performance of the river system and the macro economy that is directly linked to it. “So, in such cases,” Basheer says, “when we
evaluate interventions into river systems it’s important that we consider this variability when we look at, for example, economic impacts considering the co- evolution of economic growth and water supplies and demands, and electricity supplies and demands. “It enables simulating interventions in transboundary
systems in a better way and enables analysts to characterise the interdependence between natural engineered and economic systems. This multi-sector dynamic analysis should be complemented with an assessment of the environmental impacts: if you look at GDP employment or sectoral outputs, they don’t really consider the environmental impact so that needs to be considered as well,” Basheer adds. The team from Manchester University compared their analysis of the Nile and GERD with a strategy recently drafted during negotiations in Washington DC. In most scenarios they say that adopting a
cooperative filling and operation of the GERD: ● Increases electricity from both the GERD itself and from the entire eastern Nile system.
● Sustains Sudan’s water consumption. ● Decreases Egypt’s irrigation water deficits. ● Increases Egypt’s total gross domestic products and other macroeconomic metrics. While a deal on the initial filling and long-term operation of the GERD needs to be legally binding to provide assurance to Sudan and Egypt, it should also be technically flexible and legally amendable to accommodate potential water allocation arrangements and future infrastructural development in Ethiopia, the report states “In this paper we try to show that seeking a technically
flexible and legally amenable agreement on GERD initial filling and long-term operation could contribute to building trust between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt and make negotiations on the more contentious water allocation issue more likely to succeed,” says Basheer. “This coordinated strategy could be a positive step on this negotiation pathway and help foster spirit of neighbours looking out for each other.” Professor Julien Harou is the Chair of Water Engineering at the University of Manchester. He says: “We’ve shown in this work that if you analyse how the management of major dams impacts national economies, you can demonstrate that a flexible collaborative approach would in most futures lead to better results for all parties, up and down stream. “The take-away for me from this work is that it may be harder to use inter-disciplinary methods to assess big infrastructure projects, but it’s worth it because it provides insights that wouldn’t have been revealed with simple single discipline approaches. Using engineering or economic methods alone wouldn’t have demonstrated as clearly the benefits of collaborating on Nile management.” ●
References Collaborative management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam increases economic benefits and resilience by Mohammed Basheer, Victor Nechifor, Alvaro Calzadilla, Khalid Siddig, Mikiyas Etichia, Dale Whittington, David Hulme & Julien J. Harou. Nature Communications 12, 5622 (2021).
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25877-w
www.futuredams.org/increased-economic-benefits-and-resilience-with- collaborative-management-of-the-niles-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam
www.waterpowermagazine.com | November 2021 | 9
Below: The Nile comprises three main tributaries: the White Nile, the Blue Nile, and the Tekeze- Atbara. The Blue Nile originates in Ethiopia and contributes around 57% of the Nile streamflow as measured near the Sudanese–Egyptian border. Nearly all the Nile streamflow, measured near the Sudanese– Egyptian border, is currently consumed by the two most downstream riparian countries of Egypt and Sudan
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