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Neighbourhood watch


New research seeks to show that a collaborative agreement on the initial filling and long-term operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River will help build trust between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt. Ultimately this could resolve the more contentious issues along the negotiation pathway and foster a spirit of neighbouring countries “looking out for each other”


Above: Countryside near the Nile irrigation canal in the Nile Valley, Egypt. Irrigated agriculture accounts for approximately 82% of Egypt’s annual Nile water withdrawal


“WHENEVER YOU TAKE A cooperative approach to managing a river system with infrastructure, it is likely to see an overall increase in economic benefits and an enhancement of the resilience to variability in river flows, notably if the river basin extends over multiple countries,” explains Mohammed Basheer from the University of Manchester in the UK. Basheer is the lead author of University of Manchester-led research that was recently published in Nature Communications. It presents a new generic co-evolutionary hydro-economic modelling framework that captures the dynamic interactions between a river’s hydrology and infrastructure, and the macroeconomy of any of the river’s riparian countries. This modelling framework helps examine a coordinated operating strategy for filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River.


As Basheer et al explain in their paper, called


Collaborative management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam increases economic benefits and resilience, the Nile is one of the longest rivers in the world. It has a basin that extends over 11 African


countries, each with a different contribution to and economic dependence on the river. “If we look at the history of all the infrastructure in the Nile Basin, we can see that the landscape is changing with new dams being constructed, especially in upstream countries,” Basheer says. “The most recent of these is the GERD. When this dam is completed it will be the largest hydropower facility in Africa and will generate 14TWh per year. It will have a reservoir capable of storing 1.5 times the average flow of the river, which will mean there will be significant changes to the variability of river flow, both within the year and from one year to another.” Water resources of the Nile River are limited and highly variable; their efficient utilisation is key to the economic growth and resilience of its riparian states. Egypt’s water, energy, food, and economic system is linked to the Nile streamflow, which provides around 90% of the country’s freshwater consumption and 7% of its electricity supply through hydropower. On average, irrigated agriculture accounts for approximately 82% of Egypt’s annual Nile water withdrawal, while municipal and industrial water users account for 18%. As the authors explain: “Freshwater and electricity


The research was carried out under the umbrella of the FutureDAMS research project which aims to improve the planning and governance of water-energy-food- environment systems. FutureDAMS is a three-year, £8 million interdisciplinary programme, funded by the UK Research and Innovation Economic and Social Research and runs until December 2021. The programme is a consortium of over 30 researchers, led by The University of Manchester (Global Development Institute) and the International Institute for Environment & Development. www.futuredams.org


are essential inputs to many production activities that drive the economic development and well- being of societies. The scarcity and variability of freshwater resources have been shown to affect the economic growth of nations. Empirical evidence of uni- and bidirectional relationships between energy consumption and economic development have been documented in countries around the world… Therefore, efficient use of limited water resources to achieve sustainable economic development requires


8 | November 2021 | www.waterpowermagazine.com


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