Regulations & policy |


Above: A complex web of shifting regulations can increase the cost, risk and timeline to developers of new hydropower projects, currently leaving uncertainty over whether wetlands qualify as waters


The new Stanford University study, published


on 6 July in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, highlights the significant environmental and economic consequences of drought-induced shifts in energy supply. In future drought years, the study estimates that emissions resulting from this shift could account for up to 40% of all greenhouse gas emissions from electricity in states heavily reliant on hydropower for electricity generation. Over the past two decades, these impacts have collectively cost 11 Western states billions of dollars. In California alone, the increase in fossil fuel generation caused by drought between 2012 and 2016 resulted in damages exceeding US$5 billion. While between 2001 and 2021, the total health and economic damages resulting from drought-induced fossil electricity generation in Western states amounted to US$20 billion. The findings underscore the need to consider the social and economic costs of climate change more comprehensively. As droughts become more frequent and severe in the American West due to climate change, failure to account for these effects leads governments to underestimate the financial and societal impacts of global warming. The researchers argue that these overlooked costs emphasise the importance of investing in measures to combat climate change. The study also shows how the consequences


of drought-induced shifts in energy supply extend beyond state borders. When hydropower becomes scarce in Northwestern states that typically export electricity to neighbouring regions, communities in California and the Southwest are affected as fossil fuel power plants are employed to fill the energy gap. The interconnected nature of energy systems exacerbates the impact of climate shocks, illustrating that these damages are not confined to specific locations. Although the study primarily focuses on the American West, the researchers highlight the global


44 | October 2023 | www.waterpowermagazine.com


relevance of the issue. Many countries around the world, which heavily rely on hydropower, face increased drought risks due to climate change. Regions where high-emitting coal-fired power plants are likely to replace lost hydropower, the authors warn, will experience even higher economic and health damages resulting from deteriorated air quality and greenhouse gas emissions compared to Western states, where natural gas is more commonly used. “Our findings have implications for many other parts of the world that depend on hydropower but could face increasing drought,” said Marshall Burke, an associate professor in the global environmental policy area of the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability’s social sciences division. “In these regions, drought’s interaction with the energy system can have a cascading series of negative impacts on emissions and health.” The authors suggest that additional initiatives must be pursued by hydropower-reliant states to achieve their net-zero emission goals in the face of increasingly frequent droughts. “If we want to solve this issue, we need an even


greater expansion of renewable energy alongside better energy storage, so we don’t need to tap into fossil fuels as much,” said lead study author Minghao Qiu, a postdoctoral scholar in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability and Stanford Centre for Innovation in Global Health.


RAPID toolkit Changes to the Clean Water Act and the definition


of Waters of the United States (WOTUS) have left uncertainty over whether wetlands qualify as waters. Although, as Caitlin McDermott-Murphy from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory explained, state and federal regulations are designed to protect water quality, they can also increase the cost, risk and timeline to developers of new hydropower projects due to a complex web of shifting regulations.


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