AI & machine learning |
Bridging the gap Erratic weather patterns, unexpected water inflow, damaging storm surges, and prolonged
droughts are creating unprecedented challenges for hydropower operators balancing demands. As the climate crisis intensifies, AI-based water forecasting and modelling will play a defining role in mitigating risks, optimising water resource management, and enhancing resilience. Laura Read, Head of Product Strategy at Upstream Tech, explains how AI is building resilience for hydropower
THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM’S Risks Report 2023 ranks failure to mitigate and adapt to the climate crisis within its top two priorities globally, for both the near and long term. As climatic change leads to a rise in erratic weather patterns, the increase in storm intensity and unpredictable surges have become a significant challenge for global hydropower infrastructure. Surges cause severe damage to turbines, spillways, and ancillary infrastructure, and increased difficulty in accurately predicting these events leaves operations teams unprepared to respond effectively, leading to severe infrastructure damage and compromised energy production.
In 2017, California’s Department of Water Resources issued a mandatory evacuation order for 188,000 residents living below the Oroville Dam, fearing catastrophic failure. A series of unseasonable storms had caused Oroville Lake to rise rapidly, exposing maintenance vulnerabilities in the dam’s spillway and severe structural problems. A recent response to the climate crisis comes
from Statkraft, Europe’s largest renewable energy producer, which has announced a capital investment programme amounting to €700 million to shore up its hydropower assets against the impact of increasing storm surges. Large scale capital investment programmes like these demonstrate the industry’s ongoing commitment to building resilience in ageing infrastructure against the climate threat. But, at present, tens of thousands of dams worldwide are ageing, and ill-equipped to withstand
14 | September 2024 |
www.waterpowermagazine.com
the increased frequency and intensity of near-full or spillover events and overtopping caused by climate volatility. According to the Association of Dam Safety Officials, overtopping accounts for 34% of all dam failures. As reservoirs approach capacity, their structural integrity is threatened, straining spillways and surrounding structures.
Meteorological forecasting Hydropower generation depends on accurate water
forecasting for capacities and flows to inform both the design and construction of dams, as well as long term operations. But rapidly changing meteorological conditions mean that traditional models of water forecasting can no longer accurately account for an increase in volatility in heavy rainfall patterns. Subsequent inaccurate predictions, therefore, may
lead to poor construction design, which has been shown to increase costs, and present potential safety hazards over time, as well putting operational decision making under pressure and leaving current dam safety procedures wanting. Set against the emerging challenges in forecasting, nevertheless, are the responsibilities that dam owners have to human life, property and the environment in their operations. Regulatory requirements for hydropower operators demand the mitigation of spillover events to ensure safety and compliance. The safety breach at the Oroville Dam triggered an extensive review of dam safety practices across the US, with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
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