| Hydropower & water scarcity
neighbours in Alberta and the Pacific Northwest who were experiencing demand and system challenges. “Extreme weather events like drought and cold snaps are putting people and communities at increased risk,” said Josie Osborne, Minister of Energy, Mines and Low Carbon Innovation. “Thanks to the resiliency of our energy system and exceptional planning by BC Hydro, we are able to meet the needs of British Columbians while also delivering clean, reliable hydroelectricity to our neighbours in Alberta when they needed it most.” Although the historic drought has impacted some of BC Hydro’s largest reservoirs, it has been planning in real-time for over a year to manage these conditions. Tools it has utilised include multi-year reservoir storage, regional diversity in its generating facilities, contracts for power, and the ability to import and export power through the Western Interconnection – a network of high-voltage transmission lines that connects BC with other utilities in western North America. “BC is fortunate to have an integrated, provincial
hydroelectric system that allows us to ramp up quickly when generation is needed and scale back when it is not,” Chris O’Riley, BC Hydro’s President and CEO, said. “Our teams carefully plan and prepare for cold weather events like this to ensure our generating facilities are running at full capacity so we can deliver clean electricity to our customers when they need it the most.”
Assessing risks In a working paper produced for the Grantham Research
Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, Senni and von Jagow say that their research strengthens the evidence about the negative effects of water-related risks and changes in water availability on hydropower. Previous research has alluded to the fact that 61-74% of 24,500 global hydropower projects would be impacted by climate-driven changes in hydrology, while by 2050 risks will increase by a third for existing and projected dams located within river basins that currently have medium to high water risks. The authors say that their current research presents statistical evidence that water-related risks are material to hydroelectricity generation and, as far as they know, is the only study that provides estimates of the effect of water scarcity on hydroelectricity generation for high- income economies. “This is important,” they explain, “because much of the literature on economic impacts on natural resource
scarcity is focused on developing economies, arguably because they have a higher dependence on their natural resource base. However, it is important to note that vulnerabilities to natural resource also exist in developed economies.” Using data on plant location and operating capacity,
hydro generation at the plant level, power plant type, water-related risks, hydro-meteorological and reservoir data, Senni and von Jagow’s final sample included 1141 power plants from 14 European countries and 47 US states, over a sample period of 2015-2021. They believe their findings help identify research needs in three important areas: Understanding the future risks to hydroelectricity generation from changing water availability and how they could be addressed. Exploring how these risks spill over into other sectors and the financial system. Extending the understanding of the relationship between nature and the economy to include further ecosystem services.
Hydropower will be crucial to the transition to renewable energy but the effects of climate change on water scarcity will determine the effectiveness of such projects, the authors warn. They add that the findings of their paper can be used for planning as well as for calibrating economy-wide models that endogenise hydroelectricity generation. Future research is still needed though and should focus on exploring heterogeneity across regions to better project future impacts due to environmental, as well as developing water availability scenarios. An analysis of spillover effects and ownership relationships would help translate water-related risks into financial losses while, the authors add, a deeper understanding of the vulnerability of individual hydropower plants and how adaptation measures can reduce it, is crucial.
Above: The Dalles Dam on the Columbia River in the US is described as being a barometer for hydro conditions across the Pacific Northwest
Below: Historic drought exposes the riverbed and significantly narrowed Fraser River in British Columbia, Canada
References
Drought impacts on the electricity system, emissions, and air quality in the western United States by Minghao Qiu, Nathan Ratledge, Inés M. L. Azevedo and Marshall Burke. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. July 6, 2023. 120 (28) e2300395120.
https://doi.org/10.1073/ pnas.2300395120
https://www.columbian.com/ news/2024/feb/12/washington- state-drinking-water-hydropower- at-risk-as-pacific-northwest- snowpack-shrinks/
US Pacific Northwest hydropower trend below normal on weak snowpack | S&P Global Commodity Insights (spglobal. com)
Above: BC Hydro’s Revelstoke hydroelectric dam on the Columbia River in Canada. Despite recent historic drought, BC Hydro was able to generate sufficient power to meet demands during record cold spells, as well as exporting power to neighbouring regions in need
Colesanti Senni C and von Jagow A (2023) Water risks for hydroelectricity generation. Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper 418/Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Paper 394. London: London School of Economics and Political Science
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