Africa |
Right: Mellègue dam in Tunisia. The country has been suffering from the effects of drought
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The authors say that analysis of the GERD’s initial filling and long-term operation shows that adaptively managing the dam to maximise the national benefits of any of the three countries would be costly for at least one of the other two countries. However their adaptive management approach “could produce balanced benefits for the three countries”. “We demonstrate the utility of the framework by designing a cooperative adaptive management policy for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that balances the transboundary economic and biophysical interests of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt,” Mohammed Basheer et al say in their paper. “This shows that if the three countries compromise cooperatively and adaptively in managing the dam, the national-level economic and resilience benefits are substantial, especially under climate projections with the most extreme streamflow changes.” Furthermore, the authors believe it “is high time”
to integrate climate change adaptation into the decade-long negotiations over GERD and broader Nile management discussion between the 11 riparian countries.
References
www.sundaymail.co.zw/ another-reminder-on-the- urgency-of-climate-proofing-
our-economy-lives President Mnangagwa. 4 December 2022.
www.zesco.co.zm/news/107
www.manchester.ac.uk/ discover/news/economic- benefits-for-nile-countries
Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile River with climate and socio-economic Uncertainties by Mohammed Basheer, Victor Nechifor, Alvaro Calzadilla, Solomon Gebrechorkos, David Pritchard, Nathan Forsythe, Jose M. Gonzalez, Justin Sheffield, Hayley J. Fowler & Julien J. Harou. Nature Climate Change. Volume 13,
January 2023, pp48–57 https://
doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022- 01556-6
“Nile negotiations have aimed to produce static
long-term agreements, but there is high uncertainty on the medium and long-term impacts of climate change on the basin’s rainfall, streamflow, temperature, and socio-economic systems - this paper proposes an analytical approach that can help design adaptive agreements given these uncertainties,” says Dr Mohammed Basheer, lead author of the paper.
Impacting water supply Various countries across Africa are described as
feeling the effects of a changing climate. Extreme heat conditions across South Africa have caused evaporation at the province’s reservoirs leading to a decline in water levels, the Department of Water and Sanitation reported on 26 January 2023. Spokesperson, Wisane Mavasa said high temperatures in various parts of the country have had a negative impact. “While the current dam levels should not be cause for concern, the continuous drop in some parts of the country remains a worry, and the low levels will affect water supply to communities. We are therefore encouraging communities to conserve water and be
22 | March 2023 |
www.waterpowermagazine.com
extremely cautious when using dams or rivers to cool off from these hot weather conditions.” Although national dam levels were showing a slight improvement on last year’s figures for the end of January, and the country’s water supply systems are now “mostly on high levels”, they are also “experiencing a continuous drop” as the rainy season comes to an end. Western Cape Province is reported to have one of the lowest levels that had “drastically” dropped down to just over 56% of capacity. The Department of Water and Sanitation is also dealing with other concerns in relation to water resources and usage. It said it “continues to tighten its firm hand on illegal water use” as a farmer in KwaZulu- Natal was fined R1.5million for constructing an illegal dam on his farm without the required water use authorisation. The department has also called upon communities to “be active citizens and guard their own infrastructure” as vandalism of water supply facilities continues to undermine and derail government efforts to ensure water security to communities. It says that the disruption of water supply as a result of vandalism in the Amathole District Municipality has exacerbated the ongoing challenges in the area due to water demand that exceeds water supply, plus the effects of load shedding.
Tunisia and Morocco Drought has also been taking a hold on Tunisia for
the past three years. Dams are reported to be at 25% of capacity, with some as low as 10%, and since September 2022 only a fifth of normal rainfall has been recoded. Farmers are worried about food supplies and fear for their crops of olives - the country’s most important export. While some are saying it is time for the authorities to
declare a state of water emergency, Tunisia says it is preparing studies for the development of new dams and seawater desalination plants between 2023-25. Repeatedly lower winter rainfall is also causing
problems in Morocco. After five consecutive years of drought, many of the country’s reservoirs are at lower levels, with the government now instructing that most water will now be diverted from irrigation to supply drinking water. In previous years water supplies were cut to homes at night to help ensure they lasted throughout the summer months. ●
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