BUILDING RESILIAINCE | COMMENTARY
The hidden fragility of clean energy
The necessity for decarbonisation is clear but the technologies that largely underpin that process like solar panels and batteries rely on supply chains that are highly concentrated and therefore vulnerable. With the very foundations of national energy security potentially at risk, nuclear offers distinct advantages.
By Cristina Talacko, CEO, GLOW Strategies
HISTORY OFFERS MANY EARLY WARNINGS about the dangers of concentrated supply chains. For centuries, the Roman Empire relied on Egyptian grain; by the time of Augustus, as much as a third of Rome’s food supply came from the Nile. A poor flood season or disruption along Mediterranean shipping routes could threaten the empire’s stability. Control of Egypt’s grain was so central to imperial security that securing the province became a prerequisite for securing Rome. A similar pattern emerged along the ancient Silk Road.
China maintained a near-total monopoly on silk production for centuries, giving it disproportionate influence over the luxury economies of Rome, Persia and Byzantium. These early examples show that when production is concentrated in a single geography, fragility becomes systemic; a pattern that has echoed across civilisations. Fast forward to today, and the fragilities are strikingly
familiar.
The pandemic’s supply chain wake-up call The Covid-19 pandemic exposed how deeply modern economies depend on tightly optimised, geographically concentrated supply chains. In 2021, when a container ship lodged itself in the Suez Canal, it paralysed nearly 12% of global trade. That same year, semiconductor shortages cost the automotive industry an estimated $210bn. More recently, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea since late 2023
forced hundreds of vessels to reroute around Africa, with container traffic through the Suez Canal falling by more than 50%.
These episodes reinforced the reality that highly
concentrated supply chains can turn minor disruptions into systemic shocks. A similar pattern is now emerging in the clean energy
transition. The technologies driving decarbonisation – solar panels, wind turbines and batteries – rely on supply chains that are just as concentrated, if not more so, than those that faltered during the pandemic. The stakes, however, are far higher: what is at risk is the foundations of national energy security. China controls more than 80% of global solar
photovoltaic manufacturing capacity, after investing over $130bn into the solar industry in 2023 alone. Wind turbines depend on rare earth elements, and China processes between 85% and 90% of rare earths worldwide – closer to 99% for heavy rare earths. A solar panel installed in Manchester may harness local photons, but its supply chain remains overwhelmingly concentrated in East Asia. Battery storage intensifies these dependencies further.
According to the International Energy Agency’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024, demand for lithium could increase eightfold by 2040 under the Net Zero Emissions scenario, whilst copper requirements could rise by 50%. Lithium demand grew by 30% in 2023 alone.
Above: Europe is blessed with considerable renewable energy resources but development and use depends on highly concentrated supply chains Source: Sumitomo Corp
www.neimagazine.com | December 2025 | 39
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