NUCLEAR GROWTH FORECAST | POLICY & MARKETS Governments worldwide are also reinforcing nuclear


energy policies through financial incentives, regulatory support, and direct investments. The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) introduced tax credits and financial mechanisms to improve nuclear competitiveness, while Japan’s Green Transformation (GX) initiative revised regulations to allow reactors to operate beyond 60 years, ensuring long-term investment certainty. The US Department of Energy (DOE) has demonstrated


strong support for the nuclear industry through programmes such as the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP), which allocates billions of dollars for the development and commercialisation of next-generation nuclear technologies. Federal incentives, such as the Production Tax Credit


(PTC) and Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for clean energy projects, also bolster nuclear power by improving the economic viability of new plants. In Europe, several countries are supporting a continued


nuclear contribution having granted lifetime extensions to aging nuclear reactors. These include Belgium (2.2 GW), Hungary (2.0 GW), the Czech Republic (2.0 GW), Finland (1.1 GW), Spain (1.1 GW), Romania (0.7 GW), and the Netherlands (0.5 GW). The European Union’s classification of nuclear power as a “green investment” under its Taxonomy has further improved investor confidence. Additionally, nuclear power’s integration into long-term power contracts, such as government-backed power purchase agreements (PPAs), has made it more financially viable, ensuring stable revenue streams for plant operators. Several key policies have been implemented to support


nuclear power in France. The Energy and Climate Law of 2019 originally set a target to reduce nuclear’s share of electricity generation to 50% by 2035, though this timeline may be revised in light of the new expansion plans. Under the France 2030 Investment Plan, EUR1bn ($1.16bn) has been allocated for SMRs and advanced nuclear research and development. The Indian government is also amending existing laws


to open the nuclear sector to private and foreign entities. Historically, the Atomic Energy Act of 1962 granted the central government a monopoly over nuclear energy production. Proposed amendments aim to facilitate private sector participation and attract foreign direct investment (FDI), thereby infusing the sector with necessary capital and technological expertise.


Nuclear growth forecast Nuclear power accounted for approximately 9% of global electricity generation at the end of 2024, with around 410 reactors in operation worldwide, providing a total capacity of about 395 GW. An additional 63 reactors are under construction, highlighting a strong expansion trend. Over the past two decades, nuclear capacity has remained relatively stable, as some countries expanded their fleets while others phased out nuclear energy due to political or environmental considerations. Global nuclear capacity has experienced a mix of steady


growth, temporary setbacks, and policy-driven expansions from 2015 to 2024. The total installed nuclear power capacity rose from 381.3 GW in 2015 to 395.4 GW in 2024. The early years of this timeline saw moderate growth


in nuclear power, particularly in countries with long-term commitments to nuclear energy. In China, which led the


global nuclear expansion, installed capacity increased significantly as the country commissioned multiple new reactors. Between 2015 and 2019, China brought several large-scale PWRs online, including its indigenous Hualong One reactors. As a result, China’s nuclear power generation rose from 161.2 TWh in 2015 to 330.1 TWh in 2019, contributing significantly to the overall global increase. On the other hand, certain nations experienced stagnation or even declines in nuclear generation during this period. Germany continued its nuclear phase-out, shutting down


reactors as part of its Energiewende policy, leading to a gradual reduction in capacity. Japan, still recovering from the Fukushima-Daiichi disaster in 2011, faced regulatory challenges that slowed the restart of its nuclear fleet. By 2019, Japan’s nuclear generation had only marginally increased compared to 2015 levels despite efforts to revive reactors under stricter safety regulations. A significant global event impacting nuclear power


generation was the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The decline in electricity demand, combined with operational disruptions and maintenance delays, led to a temporary dip in total nuclear generation, which fell from 2,649.6 TWh in 2019 to 2,560.5 TWh in 2020. Countries such as the US, France, and South Korea witnessed lower nuclear output due to reduced grid demand and delayed reactor refuelling schedules. However, China continued its upward trajectory, with new reactor additions partially offsetting the overall global decline. Post-2020, the nuclear sector witnessed renewed momentum, driven by energy security concerns and decarbonisation goals. The Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 significantly altered global energy dynamics, pushing many European nations to reconsider their stance on nuclear energy. France reaffirmed its commitment to expanding nuclear capacity, announcing plans to construct new EPR (European Pressurised Reactor) units. The UK, facing energy supply challenges, accelerated its investment in small modular reactors (SMRs), while the US provided financial support for extending the lifespans of existing nuclear plants. Russia, despite geopolitical sanctions, continued its


international nuclear partnerships, supplying reactor technology and nuclear fuel to countries like Turkey, India, and Bangladesh. Meanwhile, South Korea, after years of policy uncertainty, recommitted to nuclear energy under a revised energy strategy, reversing earlier plans to scale down its nuclear fleet. While capacity additions continued, growth remained


moderate due to plant retirements in some regions and delays in new reactor deployments. However, momentum is expected to accelerate in the coming years as multiple countries expand their nuclear programs to strengthen energy security and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. By 2035, global nuclear capacity is projected to reach 494.1 GW, generating approximately 3,410.3 TWh of electricity. This increase will be driven by large-scale reactor expansions in China, India, and Russia, alongside renewed investments in nuclear power from European nations such as France and the UK. Additionally, the deployment of small modular reactors (SMRs) in Canada, the US, and Japan is expected to contribute to capacity growth, providing flexible and scalable nuclear solutions. The global push for decarbonisation, rising electricity demand, and energy diversification strategies will further support this upward trend in nuclear power development. ■


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