FROM THE EDITOR
promise and
Crisis offers
danger
While there is much cause for optimism, the nuclear power sector also faces the challenge of climate change. That could rebalance the equation yet again.
ith the industry already on a high unseen for decades, for the nuclear power business the latest edition of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook does a good deal to raise
the optimism level still further. True, a large part of that positive outlook does result from the global energy crisis that was in turn prompted by aggression in Ukraine, but the outcome is a radical shift in energy policy. The IEA notes that the current energy crisis is delivering a shock of unprecedented breadth, with the biggest tremors felt in the fossil fuel markets like natural gas, coal and oil. And, as the seemingly unrelenting geopolitical and economic concerns highlight the vulnerability of existing energy supply chains, instead of the fossil-fuelled status quo, governments around the world are adopting long- term changes. These changes mark a shift away from oil and gas and a major step towards more sustainable and secure sources of energy like nuclear and renewables. According to their analysis of the latest worldwide
energy policies, these new measures will push global clean energy investment to more than US$2 trillion a year by 2030, an increase of more than 50% on current levels of investment. The rebalancing of global energy markets sees
renewables, supported by nuclear power, achieve sustained gains, the Agency argues. “Energy markets and
David Appleyard
policies have changed as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, not just for the time being, but for decades to come. Even with today’s policy settings, the energy world is shifting dramatically before our eyes. Government responses around the world promise to make this a historic and definitive turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable and more secure energy system,” observed IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. Furthermore, this radical policy swing has come with a speed that few believed possible. The outlook suggests that as a result of this shift global climate changing emissions actually peak in 2025 as coal use falls back within the next few years and natural gas demand reaches a plateau by the end of the decade. Rising sales of electric vehicles deliver a major blow to oil demand too, which levels off in the mid-2030s. Under the current scenario, as modelled by the IEA, the global share of fossil fuels in the energy mix falls from around 80% to more like 60% by 2050. At the same time emissions fall back slowly from a high of 37 billion tonnes a year to 32 billion tonnes by 2050. But as welcome and as rapid as this change is and for all the benefits that nuclear power might gain, it’s clearly not enough to avert catastrophic global warming. This analysis suggests such emissions would be associated with a global average temperature rise of around 2.5°C by 2100. This is a point that is amply illustrated by the UN Environment Program’s Emission Gap Report 2022. This document asserts that there is no credible pathway to a 1.5°C rise in average temperatures despite the legally binding promises made at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference. For nuclear power, a 2.5°C increase in temperatures and the associated climate disruption could be a real game changer though. Nuclear fuel may well be more secure than natural gas as a source of energy, but the vast volumes of water that reactors need to operate could become much harder to find. Already parts of the French reactor fleet are curtailed during extended periods of very high temperatures for environmental reasons. Rivers simply cannot accommodate the additional heat load operating reactors deliver to the water course. The rapid shift towards cleaner, more sustainable and
secure energy sources is certainly to be welcomed. But it is also evident that a far more radical shift in policy is needed. Unless we can enable collective action to meet these vital climate ambitions it may yet prove too late for nuclear power to play a key role after all. ■
www.neimagazine.com | November 2022 | 3
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