FROM THE EDITOR
capacity will more than double by 2050 – reaching 2.6 times the 2024 level – with small modular reactors (SMRs) expected to play a pivotal role. According to ‘Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power
Nuclear powers up the future
Prospects for the nuclear contribution to global energy are remarkable and not just from new build. The performance of old nuclear facilities is compelling
ere any evidence needed
to support the remarkable projections for the future of nuclear power then the recent ‘World Nuclear Fuel Report: Global Scenarios for Demand and Supply
Availability 2025-2040’ from the World Nuclear Association is emphatic. According to their analysis, the upward trend in nuclear
generating capacity projections continues, built on the renewed enthusiasm for nuclear power. Driven by mega- trends such as the climate change imperative, socio- economic development, and enhanced energy security and sovereignty concerns, nuclear is back and right to be bold. With governments, utilities and industrial end-users
all showing a strong interest in nuclear power, growth projections are bullish. The report states that under the Reference Scenario, which reflects government and utility targets and objectives, global installed nuclear capacity will grow from the 2024 figure of 372 GWe to reach 686 GWe by 2040. This projection is a massive 60 GWe increase from a similar analysis from just two years previous. In their upper estimates, the WNA says nuclear installed capacity could even reach 966 GWe. The WNA analysis chimes with recent International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) forecasts for nuclear expansion that are even more impressive. In their high case projection, the IAEA estimates that global nuclear
David Appleyard
Estimates for the Period up to 2050’ at the end of 2024, 417 nuclear power reactors were operational, with a global capacity of 377 GWe. In the high case projection, nuclear generating capacity is projected to increase to 992 GWe by 2050 and even in the low case projection, capacity rises 50% to 561 GWe, compared with 2024. SMRs are projected to account for 24% of the new capacity added in the high case and for 5% in the low case. It is the fifth consecutive year that the IAEA has revised its projections upwards. The postive news keeps coming. Both the fuel report and the IAEA projections came on the heels of the WNA’s ‘World Nuclear Performance Report 2025’. This latest edition notes that nuclear reactors produced 2667 TWh of electricity last year, breaking the previous record which had actually been set back in 2006. Seven reactors were connected to the grid during 2024
with construction starting on a further nine units. Both the growth in generation and new capacity projects are primarily due to developments in Asia, which accounts for 59 of the 70 reactors currently under construction but the upswell in nuclear extends far beyond. And, like the fuel report, the projections for nuclear generation are expected to reach new records as additional plants are connected and begin operations. In addition though, there is strong evidence that reactor performance does not decline as plants age. The WNA analysis indicates the average global capacity factor increased to 83% with more than 60% of reactors achieving a capacity factor of more than 80%, despite the age of the global fleet. Collectively, it presents a compelling case for the future
of nuclear power. Not only is nuclear on a growth trajectory with dozens of plants under construction worldwide, the prospects of SMRs and new use cases are significantly enhancing the growth opportunity. Prospects are so good that even previously shuttered power plants are now on the road to reopening. Crucially though, once operating, nuclear generators provide sustainable energy for many decades and do so reliably. Lifespans of 60, 80 or even 100 years are credible. It is perhaps this more than anything else that sets nuclear apart. Build, yes, but live long and prosper. ■
www.neimagazine.com | October 2025 | 3
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