CONFERENCE REPORT | NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE
World Nuclear Fuel Conference report
In the wake of the conflict in Ukraine, concerns over Russia’s major role in the nuclear fuel supply chain have been brought to the fore as the industry seeks to assess potential risks and if alternatives are necessary. At an international event in London, the industry gathered to explore the situation
A SHIFTING GEOPOLITICAL AND ECONOMIC situation has prompted a significant reappraisal of security of energy supply and with it the long-term future of the nuclear fuel cycle. Alongside its significant oil and gas reserves, Russia has played a major role in the global supply of uranium and refined uranium products for civil nuclear facilities. Now that supply route is at risk of potential sanctions, the industry is looking at the feasibility of ramping up alternative sources of uranium ore, changing transportation routes and the possible substitution of Russian enrichment and reprocessing capacity. It is this context that World Nuclear Association (WNA) held its World Nuclear Fuel Conference 2022 in London in late April.
The opening session heard from Kazatomprom’s Chief
Commercial Officer Askar Batyrbayev, Orano’s CEO Nicolas Maes and Cameco’s President and CEO Tim Gitzel in a panel discussion that explored uranium mining. The conference heard that while there were no obvious immediate concerns regarding uranium supply, in the longer term it is clear that market risks are being amplified by the situation in Ukraine. Maes downplayed the fundamental market risks, arguing
that from the supply and demand perspective nothing has significantly changed: “Consumption by reactors hasn’t changed, and it’s not because the financial community came and played on our market. We obviously have in mind what is happening at the moment in Ukraine, but geopolitics have been there in our market on a much larger scale and have been for a while.”
He suggested that it is unlikely that sanctions will be imposed on nuclear materials because it is a relatively small market when compared to fossil fuels, given the global uranium market is worth around US$9bn annually. This is equivalent to just “a few days of sales for the top oil companies,” he said. Batyrbayev echoed Maes, noting that Rosatom has not seen any sanctions imposed, “There have been no disruptions in operations. We have five joint ventures with the Rosatom group. All of them are operating normally,” he noted.
Nonetheless, the heightened geopolitical tensions follow
years of inventory run-down and production cuts in the face of a slump in uranium prices. Gitzel noted that Cameco had mothballed a number of its production sites in the wake of Fukushima Daiichi, for instance, but said of the latest developments: “This year has changed everything. The last 60 days have been unbelievable. We are still trying to figure it out.”
Batyrbayev also pointed to the growing risk of
uncertainty in the uranium market, saying it is hard to predict where the market will go and what sort of restrictions may be introduced. In response, Kazatomprom is looking at alternative transport routes that avoid passing through Russian territory, with transport perceived as one of the biggest risks: “We started to develop alternative routes that do not use Russia at all,” he said. Kazatomprom is apparently looking at a route through the Caspian, Black and Mediterranean Seas as well as another route through China, although costs are expected to be higher than the established Russian transit route. Market fundamentals and long-term security are
clearly key to establishing alternatives to the existing supply chain though. For instance, Gitzel noted that Cameco is ramping up production at the McArthur River/ Key Lake site over the coming 18 months to two years while other sites in Nebraska and Wyoming could be brought on-line if sufficient demand was available. “We operate on supply-demand fundamentals. We want good utility customers that will stick with us for five to ten years… so that we can confidently invest in our operations and run them,” he said. The morning concluded with a session exploring
Above: Conflict has increased the risk associated with nuclear fuel availability 16 | June 2022 |
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government and utility views on energy and supply security, hearing from Yves Desbazeille, Director General, Foratom, Adrienne Hanly, Uranium Production Specialist in the Department of Nuclear Energy at the IAEA and Jason Murphy, Vice President of Nuclear Fuels at the US utility group Constellation.
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