SPECIAL REPORT | URANIUM PRICING
Price trends sending market signals
The continued upward pressure on uranium prices shows little sign of slowing as market drivers and geopolitical events continue to shape the price profile. Despite this, there’s every indication that the drive to develop new nuclear generation capacity will continue
By Eugene Gerden
GLOBAL URANIUM PRICES, WHICH ALMOST doubled in 2023, have continued the trend with further price rises this year. The spot price of uranium oxide has already exceeded US$106 per pound, returning to a level last seen in 2007 and prior to the tsunami-prompted accident at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant which curtailed much of the optimism nuclear had enjoyed at that time and when many countries, including in Europe, announced ambitious plans to build new nuclear power plants. A number of factors have coalesced to push prices up. These include the evident and growing interest in nuclear energy, the increase in investment fund activity, and geopolitical fears over production and access. The cessation of production in Niger following a military coup that began in September 2023, hit a major source of uranium ore for French company Orano. The African state reduced uranium supplies to France, which in turn reduced the amount of uranium available to the market and, while the Niger’s global share of uranium output does not exceed 8%, it supplies almost a quarter of European demand. In addition,
there are some issues with Canadian supplies where the volume of production has decreased due to technical difficulties in recent months.
A period of price rises The rapid increase in spot uranium prices actually began in 2022 when they jumped by 41% up to $49.81 a pound – a move that was prompted by the possibility of sanctions on Russian uranium, as well as the implications for logistical problems that the conflict in Ukraine also heralded. Indeed, at the end of 2023, the market was rocked by a speculation that the US may ban the import of low enriched uranium from the Russian Federation when, in December that year, the US House of Representatives approved a bill to that effect. It is expected that, if enacted, the ruling will operate until 2040. While the required majority of congressmen voted for the initiative, H.R.1042 – Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act, the bill is also a subject to approval from the Senate and the US President Joe Biden.
Above: Geopolitical issues impacting uranium prices will ultimately been seen in the cost of nuclear fuel 44 | April 2024 |
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